Part 2 - Way Too Early Lineup Projection – August 6, 2010

(c) Dave Sandford - Getty Images
Kyle Beach finds himself on the bubble this season

Part 1 outlines the rationale with coming to these projections.

These players are locked into the roster for opening night (assuming if you believe what Bowman has said about Crawford getting his chance this year).Those italicized are most likely on the team barring them crapping the bed in training camp:

Goalies (2): Marty Turco, Corey Crawford

Defencemen (5): Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brian Campbell, Jordan Hendry

Forwards (11): Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, David Bolland, Troy Brouwer, Tomas Kopecky, Brian Bickell, Jake Dowell, Viktor Stalberg, Jack Skille

21st man/nuclear weapon with his fists for when the Hawks play St. Louis (13F or 7D): John Scott

This brings us to a total of 2, maybe 3 spots up for grabs. The last defenceman spot will either be a veteran UFA or one of Ivan Vishnevsky or Shawn Lalonde. There is a forward spot available, and this will likely come down to Kyle Beach, Igor Makarov and Jeff Taffe. There may be a UFA in there like a Tim Kennedy, but that remains to be seen. Lastly, Hannu Toivenen will battle Corey Crawford for the backup goaltender spot, with Crawford having the inside track.

During the year, the Hawks will have injury call ups or carry a 22nd player. As seen in the first section, the daily cap hit of the players on the Rockford Express is between $2,600-$4,400 per day. For the purpose of this projection, I’ll assume $3,500 per day, and that 100 days the Hawks have a 22nd player up. So, the total the Hawks would use on call-ups during the year would be anywhere between $350K to $500K or so.

I’m going to use Visnevskiy as placeholder for the 5th defenceman. I think he’s closer than Lalonde should no UFA Dman be signed. Also, $821K is close to what a veteran UFA D-man would get. For the last forward spot, it really comes down to Makarov and Beach. Both have high upside. Makarov is probably the better two-way player and comes in with a cheaper cap hit of $553K. He’s probably more mature than Beach as well, having played against men for 2 years now. On the other hand Beach would bring more of a physical element to the Hawks, and if he shows maturity he could be a big-time contributor on a line with Toews and Kane, creating plenty of space for those two to operate. However, he could use some seasoning in the minors to get used to the pro game and has a higher cap hit ($1.17M including bonuses, $845K without bonuses). So in my mind there’s two scenarios here:

1) Beach makes the team:
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Kyle Beach ($1.170m) / Jonathan Toews ($6.300m) / Patrick Kane ($6.300m)
Troy Brouwer ($1.025m) / Patrick Sharp ($3.900m) / Marian Hossa ($5.275m)
Viktor Stalberg ($0.850m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Tomas Kopecky ($1.200m)
Bryan Bickell ($0.541m) / Jake Dowell ($0.525m) / Jack Skille ($0.600m)

DEFENSEMEN
Duncan Keith ($5.538m) / Brent Seabrook ($3.500m)
Brian Campbell ($7.142m) / Niklas Hjalmarsson ($3.500m)
Jordan Hendry ($0.600m) / Ivan Vishnevskiy ($0.821m)
/ John Scott ($0.512m)

GOALTENDERS
Marty Turco ($1.300m) /Corey Crawford ($0.800m)

CARRY-OVER BONUS PENALTY: $4,157,753

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,935,757; BONUSES: $390,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $854,243

If Beach makes the team, he’s best served playing on one of the top 2 lines. Skille and Kopecky could be interchangeable here. So could Beach and Brouwer. This lineup leaves cap space of $854,243. With my call-up assumption of anywhere between $350-500K, this would leave the Hawks with somewhere between $350 to $500K in cap space at the trade deadline to make an addition or two.

This is a pretty solid lineup, assuming that Beach is ready to go and can contribute. I like the Rockford veterans as the 4th line as they’ll have familiarity with each other and have a bit of everything that a 4th line should have. Dowell and Bickell with grit, Skille with good speed.

2) Makarov makes the team ahead of Beach
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Troy Brouwer ($1.025m) / Jonathan Toews ($6.300m) / Patrick Kane ($6.300m)
Viktor Stalberg ($0.850m) / Patrick Sharp ($3.900m) / Marian Hossa ($5.275m)
Tomas Kopecky ($1.200m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Jack Skille ($0.600m)
Bryan Bickell ($0.541m) / Jake Dowell ($0.525m) / Igor Makarov ($0.552m)

DEFENSEMEN
Duncan Keith ($5.538m) / Brent Seabrook ($3.500m)
Brian Campbell ($7.142m) / Niklas Hjalmarsson ($3.500m)
Jordan Hendry ($0.600m) / Ivan Vishnevskiy ($0.821m)
/ John Scott ($0.512m)


GOALTENDERS
Marty Turco ($1.300m) /Corey Crawford ($0.800m)

CARRY-OVER BONUS PENALTY: $4,157,753

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,317,424; BONUSES: $65,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,147,576

Assuming that Makarov is NHL-ready, and this is a big assumption because he’s been playing in Russia and we haven’t seen him much lately, this is the ideal scenario to start the season in my opinion. The Hawks would have $1.15M in cap space. This allows space for not only injury call-ups, but for performance-based call-ups as well. The Hawks could carry a 22 man roster for longer stretches of the season, and if a kid is playing well in Rockford, he’s up with the big club for longer. Or looking at it from the flip side, if there is a player in Chicago that needs to be benched to send a message, the 22nd player stays up for longer as well.

I’ll assume the top end of the range for call-ups of $500K. This would leave the Hawks around $650K in cap space at the deadline. They would then be able to acquire one or more players with a combined cap hit of between $3-3.5M which could be useful for the playoffs.

I’m pretty sure that Beach will be making more than his fair share of appearances in the lineup during the year regardless if he starts on the roster or not. Giving him 40-50 games in Rockford to get used to the pro-game and show some maturity might be best for his development. If he progresses as he should, then bring him up for the last 20-30 games of the year and go from there.

Even if he’s not on the opening night roster, Vishnevskiy is another guy that I can see playing 20-30 games in the NHL at least. He fits the Hawks style and is regarded by some as a future powerplay QB. He has some NHL experience already as well. While early on in the season it might serve Vishnevskiy best to get 20-25 minutes a night in Rockford as opposed to 12-14 minutes on the 3rd pair in Chicago, he’ll probably be up in Chicago in the second half of the year.

So what I’ve proposed is a 21 man roster that will be a 22 man roster for a lot of nights during the season (especially on road trips), kind of like a hybrid between the two. While the Hawks will be younger this year, the youth will not be relied upon to carry the team as the Hawks still possess arguably the best core group of players in the NHL. Instead, the youth will be asked to provide energy, and to support the core by going out on the ice and doing their job. It’s going to be fun to watch who of the young players being given this opportunity can step up and take advantage. Regardless of who steps up, the defending Stanley Cup Champs are still going to be a force to be reckoned with in 2010-11.

Part 1 - Way Too Early Lineup Projection – August 6, 2010

(c) Associated Press
Jordan Hendry is officially back in the fold for 2010-11

It’s summer which means it’s time to BBQ, get outside and enjoy seeing girls with less clothing on than you would in winter. However, August is also the dog days of the sports season unless you’re into baseball, and generally that’s not the case for me until late September. So for us hockey junkies, our minds keep thinking ahead to October and the start of the 2010-11 NHL season. Well, that, and continuing to celebrate the Stanley Cup win if you’re a Hawks fan.

In minor, expected news, the Blackhawks have re-signed Jordan Hendry to a 1 year, $600K contract, per capgeek.com. Hendry has been with the Hawks for a couple of years now and is your average NHL 6th or 7th defenceman. Which is pretty much where he’s going to slot for the Hawks in this coming year.

With that signing, the pieces are pretty much in place when it comes to projecting the 2010-11 Chicago Blackhawks roster. There’s still a couple of spots up from grabs, and there may still be one or two depth signings by Stan Bowman. These depth signings would most likely be a 3rd pairing defenceman who can kill penalties and has some sandpaper to him, and possibly a veteran defensive minded forward. If Bowman only signs one player, the priority should be a 5th defenceman who fits that description above. Some possibilities are Mike Mottau, Jay McKee or Shane Hnidy.

After the signing of Marty Turco for the bargain price of $1.3M, the Hawks have some flexibility in how they handle the 2010-11 season from a cap standpoint. They can choose to use the extra cap space now to fill out the roster before the season starts. Or they could save some of the cap space for the trade deadline.

Regarding the trade deadline, here’s the quick math. Assuming a trade deadline of Wednesday, March 2nd, if a team were to trade for a player on the deadline, they’d only have to pay him for 40 days the rest of the year. There are 193 days (or so) in the NHL season. In other words, you’d only be paying for roughly 20% of the player’s contract that you pick up. What does this mean in terms of cap space? In essence, every $100K in cap space you have at the deadline is worth $500K in annual cap hit for the player. For example, say you want to pick up Andrew Ladd at the deadline (we can only dream). His cap hit is $2.35M. If you traded for Ladd at the deadline, you’d only need $500K in cap space at the deadline to acquire him and fit under the cap.

I’m of the opinion that the Hawks should try to save as much cap space for the trade deadline as possible. While the Hawks could use another defensive minded, veteran forward, why pay this forward $1.5M for the entire year? Give the kids a chance early on, and make a trade at the deadline if you need to. That way you’re only paying $300K on your cap for this veteran. The Hawks have a plethora of picks and prospects they can deal if need be.

Another debate will be whether or not the Hawks carry a 21 or 22 man roster. I’m of the opinion that you go with 21 for the most part. Why? A couple of reasons. The Hawks have a geographical advantage when it comes to their farm team being located 2 hours away in Rockford. If a player is needed for a game or two, the Hawks can call him up the day of the game, especially when they are at home. This way the Hawks only pay the daily cap hit when they use these players. From Hawkscap.com, the daily cap hits of some players who may be needing a lot of money on their I-Pass while they do the “Rockford Shuffle” are:

•Kyle Beach ($1.17M cap hit, $845K after taking out bonuses): $4,400 per day ($6,066 with bonuses included);
•Ivan Vishnevskiy ($821K cap hit): $4,257 per day;
•Shaun Lalonde ($773K cap hit, $573K after taking out bonuses): $2,867 per day ($4,007 with bonuses included);
•Igor Makarov ($553K cap hit): $2,863 per day;
•Jeff Taffe ($550K cap hit): $2,849 per day;
•Any player with a $500K cap hit (Hugh Jessiman, Rob Klinkhammer, etc): $2,590 per day.

So you’re looking at roughly between $2,600-$4,400 per day each time you call up a player from Rockford. Why have a player to sit in the press box and have his $500K off the cap when instead you maybe use this player for half the time? You save $250K on your cap by using the Rockford Express.

Another reason to roll with 21 is because a lot of these players mentioned are still young and developing as players. Examples of these players are Beach, Lalonde and Vishnevskiy. They would be better served playing 20 minutes a night every night instead of sitting and watching in the press box.

Lastly on this point, looking at the Hawks schedule there’s a few sections that stand out. They are:

•November 17th to November 27th (6 game road trip over 11 days)
•February 1st to February 12th (6 game road trip over 12 days)
•March 5th to March 13th (4 game east coast road trip over 8 days)
•Between January 15th and January 31st the Hawks only play 5 games.

For these road trips, it probably would be wise to carry a 22nd man as you’re not close to Rockford. But instead of carrying this 22nd man for 193 days, you carry him for 31 days leading to cap savings. Conversely, for that time the Hawks only play 5 games in 16 days, there’s no need to have 22 on the roster.

Part 2 will outline the roster projection as of August 6, 2010.

Adios Antti

(c) Canadian Press
Say hello to your new goaltender Hawks fans...

About a year ago at this time, the Chicago Blackhawks were heading into the 2009-10 season ready to go to war with Cristobal Huet as their starting netminder. In training camp, a young Finnish goaltender named Antti Niemi beat out Corey Crawford for the backup job. Nobody at the time saw this as some huge development because nobody really knew exactly much about this 26 year old from Finland.

Fast forward to June 9, 2010. The Chicago Blackhawks are hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup. In the course of a year, Niemi was solid during his regular season starts, Huet imploded; Niemi took over the starting job, had a very solid playoffs and despite still looking baby-faced with a playoff beard, was going to go down in Blackhawks history as the goaltender on the team that ended 49 years of misery for Hawks fans.

What a difference a year makes. Or what a difference a month makes. From the euphoria of that Stanley Cup win has come a pretty gut-wrenching offseason for Hawks fans. Due to the salary cap constraints this team faced, a lot of fan-favorites and key role players in the Stanley Cup run are now wearing different jerseys. A lot of us knew this was coming. But knowing what was going to happen hasn’t made it any easier for us. Despite the solid returns the Hawks got back in the trades, it has been tough to see half of the Stanley Cup roster gone.

Niemi was a RFA and the Hawks tried to get him signed. However, negotiations seemed to go nowhere and Niemi’s agent Bill Zito elected to take the Hawks to arbitration. Over the weekend the arbitrator awarded Niemi a 1 year $2.75M contract. The Hawks had 48 hours to decide on whether to accept the decision and keep Niemi, accept the decision and trade Niemi, or to walk away and make Niemi an unrestricted free agent.

In the end, the Hawks chose to walk away from the arbitrator’s decision thus ending the Antti Niemi era in Chicago. The reason being that if they chose to accept the decision it would mean rolling with a 20 or 21 man roster for the 2010-11 season with little cap room to account for injuries and call-ups. Either that, or you’re looking at dealing Patrick Sharp or David Bolland. Add in the fact that the Hawks would go through this same song and dance next year with Niemi when he’s a UFA and would probably want more than $2.75M and you can see why the Hawks decided what they did.

It is tough to see a goaltender who helped the Hawks win the Stanley Cup go, especially when this goaltender still has some potential to get better and has shown he can handle the pressure of the playoffs. Hawks fans have every right to be upset and if they decided to blame any of: Tallon’s overpayments putting the Hawks in this position, Campbell and his contract, the fact the Hawks get punished for Toews winning the Conn Smythe and $4.2M in bonuses carrying over to this year, Bowman Jr. not being able to sign Hjalmarsson before the San Jose offer sheet, Bill Zito being unreasonable (especially if the rumored $8M over 3 year offer was extended by the Hawks) or any other reason, each reason would have it’s merit. But such is life. It’s obvious that Antti valued every last hundred thousand dollars over staying in Chicago, and I can understand this considering the guy was driving a zamboni in Finland a few years ago for a few extra bucks. I wish him the best, and hopefully he ends up in the Eastern Conference.

The Hawks had a pretty good plan B in my opinion, and that’s Marty Turco coming in at $1.3M for one year. While I’m of the opinion that if I had one game to win tomorrow, I’m going with Niemi over Turco any day of the week, Turco is not a slouch. There has been some drop-off in Turco’s play as of late, but some of that can be attributed to playing on Dallas team that was pretty bad defensively these last few years. Turco still posted solid save % numbers last year. In addition, he will bring an added element to the Hawks’ transition game as he’s one of the best puckhandling goaltenders in the game today.

Turco accepted less money to play in Chicago to go for a championship. At 34, he wants to prove he has something left in the tank so he can get one more pay-day before he retires. To say he’s going to be motivated and have a chip on his shoulder to prove his doubters wrong would probably be an understatement. Hopefully he’s able to take advantage of this opportunity in front of him.

With this move, the Hawks give themselves $1.45M in cap room this year to finish filling out the roster. This is significant as it actually allows for competition in training camp (i.e. making sure that the Hawks have the flexibility to take the guy making $850K instead of $600K if the player making more plays better), and allows the Hawks some money to go after a veteran 3rd pairing defenceman. Also, it allows the Hawks some cushion to account for injuries and call ups during the season as opposed to having maybe $200K while rolling with a 20 man roster. Lastly, the Hawks can save some cap space for the trade deadline and make an addition or two for the playoff run.

The next entry will look at the big picture and try to project the roster for next year.

Odds and Ends

(c) Getty Images

Over the last week, the Hawks made a couple of rumored signings official. As mentioned below, the Hawks signed Jack Skille to a 1 year, $600K contract. It appears that Skille will get his opportunity to make a name for himself in the NHL this upcoming season. While many Hawks fans would rather have Buff, Versteeg or Ladd in that spot, some of the Rockford kids are going to get their shot in 2010-11 to prove their worth and that might have some value in itself. This is probably Skille’s last chance with the Hawks, so hopefully he takes advantage of it.

The Hawks also announced the signing of Brian Bickell to a 3 year, $1.625M deal ($541K cap hit). Good job again by Stan on this contract as Bickell has been a contributor in each of the opportunities he’s been up with Chicago. Queneville is a fan of Bickell as well as he’s mentioned many times in the press, and even rewarded him with a few games up on the Toews and Kane line during the season. Most likely we’re going to see Bickell manning the LW on the 4th line in 2010-11.

The Blackhawks also signed former New York Rangers first round pick Hugh Jessiman. Jessiman has some size as he measures in at 6’6” and 231 pounds. He’s bounced around the AHL the last couple of years and it’s most likely that this is a signing for Rockford. Power forwards take a longer time to develop and I’m probably reaching, but maybe he’s a late bloomer. At 1 year at $500K on a two-way contract, it’s definitely worth the risk in finding out.

Nick Leddy, the 16th overall pick in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft (by Minnesota) also has come to terms with the Blackhawks on a 3 year entry level contract. Leddy was acquired in the mid-season trade that saw Cam Barker traded to Minnesota for Leddy and Kim Johnsson. During his freshman year, Leddy played in all situations at the University of Minnesota. During Prospect Camp a couple weeks ago, Leddy turned some heads with his effortless skating and overall solid play.

Why pull Leddy from college early if you’re the Hawks? That seems to be the million dollar question. For the last couple of years those in the know have speculated that NHL GMs haven’t been too impressed with prospect development at the University of Minnesota. This could be a factor into the signing. Perhaps the Hawks feel it’s better for Leddy’s development to be in the AHL, or perhaps play one year in the WHL (Tri-Cities holds his WHL rights and he has the option to play there). Most likely, Leddy will play 2010-11 in Rockford and probably another year after that. But it is possible that Leddy will be on the Hawks roster sooner than a lot of people thought.

Finally, today is the day that Antii Niemi’s arbitration hearing took place. It appeared that Niemi’s camp was not going to budge on their rumored demands of $4M so no deal was agreed to before the hearing. The arbitrator has 48 hours to make their decision, and then from that point the Hawks will have 48 hours to decide whether they accept the deal, or walk away. Another option the Hawks have is to accept the deal and then trade Niemi if there is interest. That remains to be seen.

With all of the minor tweaking done by the Hawks, they can probably stomach a cap hit of close to $3M for Niemi if they so choose. This might mean starting with 20 skaters on the opening night roster, but it is an option. Anything more than that, and the Hawks will walk away and sign either Marty Turco or Jose Theodore as a one year stop gap. My personal plan would be to sign either of those two to a $1.5-2M contract, save the additional cap space and if whomever you sign craps the bed during the year, you have a little bit of wiggle room at the trade deadline to acquire a better goaltender.

The Hawks have done well here to not give in to Niemi’s (or his agent Bill Zito’s demands). Bowman has done everything he reasonably could to free up more dollars to give to Niemi. It appears that wasn’t enough for Zito. Bottom line, if to create more room so Niemi can make $4M you have to trade Patrick Sharp or David Bolland, the correct response is thank you Antii for your performance last year, but we can’t do that and best of luck to you. That, and to tell Bill Zito to go F himself too.

We’ll see what the arbitrator decides here in the next day or two.

A precursor?

(c) Getty Images
Could a deal with Niemi be close?

On Thursday afternoon the Chicago Blackhawks sent Marty Reasoner to Florida for Jeffrey Taffe. Reasoner, acquired in the Dustin Byfuglien deal, ended his short time as a Blackhawk within a month of arriving in Chicago.

I’m sure that when the trade for Reasoner was made, Stan Bowman envisioned that Reasoner would be a poor-man’s version of John Madden for the 4th line, but at a bargain price of $1.15M. However, with other developments this offseason, it has become apparent that the Hawks do not have the luxury of paying $1.15M to a 4th line center this year due to their salary cap constraints.

I’d be lying if I said I knew a lot about Taffe. He’s bounced between a number of AHL teams and the big league in the Blues, Coyotes and Panthers organizations. His cap hit is $550K and he did play 21 games for the Panthers last year, so he may be a candidate for a 4th line job in Chicago next year. He’ll probably compete against Jake Dowell for the 4th line center spot. Should he lose the battle to Dowell the Hawks will waive Taffe and if he clears waivers he’d be assigned to Rockford.

So why make this deal today if you’re Bowman? Well, looking at the calendar we’re one week away from Antii Niemi’s arbitration date of July 29th. As outlined already on this blog, a way that the Hawks could free up some extra cap space for their 2010-11 roster is by getting rid of Reasoner’s $1.15M cap hit and replacing him with someone making $500K or so.

Am I of the opinion that this extra $600K saved is all going to Niemi? Not entirely, as this money could represent the extra cushion the Hawks need to carry for injuries next year, or for signing another Dman, etc. But given the timing of this deal, I think it’s more than likely that this deal has a lot to do with Niemi’s upcoming arbitration.

As outlined before on this blog, $2.75M was the magic number for Niemi. With the trade of Reasoner , the Hawks could potentially go to $3M or so on Niemi. Perhaps the Hawks can get Niemi signed for more than one year given the extra cap room. I’m sure Bowman would like to avoid the headache of trying to re-sign Niemi after next season if he could.

It remains to be seen whether Bowman elects to go to arbitration and use this extra cap space as a bit of a “cushion” in terms of how high the Hawks can go on the arbitrator's amount, or he uses this space to get a deal done before July 29th. Personally, I believe that the Reasoner trade indicates that there may be a solution to getting Niemi signed before July 29th. The next couple of days should be pretty interesting on the Niemi front.

More Skille Sightings in 2010-11?

(c) Julie Rubes
Perhaps you'll stay in Chicago for more than 4 games this time Jack..

The Blackhawks continue making minor moves as they re-signed restricted free agent Jack Skille to a one-year, $600K contract per the Chicago Sun-Times. I characterize this as another shrewd move by Bowman as he continues to try to find talented, cheap (the operative word) options to fill out the 2010-11 Blackhawks roster.

Skille was the Blackhawks first round selection in 2005. While his career to this point has not been what many Hawks fans have hoped for, Skille has made strides in the last couple of years while playing for the Hawks’ AHL affiliate in Rockford and a few call up games these last few years for the Hawks. In fact, he earned the nickname “I-Pass” this last season as early in the year the Hawks would bring Jack up for a game and then send him back to Rockford the next day in order to save a little money against the cap.

While on his entry-level contract, Skille’s cap hit was around $1.2M. With the Blackhawks operating close to the salary cap limit in the last couple of years, it can be said that having such a high cap number didn’t help his chances to make the big squad. I would not say this is the reason Skille wasn’t a regular in the Hawks lineup. He has had opportunities in the past to make impressions, but did not take advantage of them either. So it’s a little bit of missed opportunities on his part, and his high cap number that contributed to him playing in Rockford.

It appears that Skille and his agent were determined not to let a high cap number be an impediment to Skille reaching his NHL dreams. As a restricted free agent, the Hawks qualified Skille this offseason at a 10% raise of his base salary which would be close to $900K for the season. Skille could have signed this offer. However, with money tight in the Windy City this year, this $900K cap number might have worked against him in his efforts to make the Hawks. Recognizing that there are job opportunities for the Hawks and that money would be a factor, Skille was faced with the following decision:

a) Sign the qualifying offer, higher NHL money if he makes the NHL, but if he doesn’t, he gets paid an AHL salary of anywhere between $65-100K

b) Sign a cheaper NHL contract at $600K, thus increasing his chances to make the NHL as he’s a cheaper option now.

Skille obviously chose option B with the idea that making the NHL at $600K is better than not making the NHL (not getting the $900K then) and getting paid $60K in the AHL. He wants to get his NHL career started which probably leads to higher paydays in the future. I commend him for recognizing this.

This helps the Hawks as well obviously, as every couple hundred thousand saved is going to help, and could be used to help pay netminder Antii Niemi. I won’t go into another lineup projection today, but assuming both Skille and Makarov are ready to contribute at the NHL level, it gives the Hawks 2 kids making $1.1M combined who have some upside in addition to having a little more financial flexibility.

From Russia with Love? Some minor moves made in the last 24 Hours

(c) DailyMe
Brian Bickell isn't Russian, but he'll be in the Opening Night lineup



I know that I said I was going to hold out on projecting a lineup until we found out the result of the Niemi arbitration and a couple of the other minor signings. In the last day or two there has been a minor move and some news that has caught my attention.

First, Andy Strickland reports that the Hawks are closing in on a deal with Brian Bickell. This makes sense on a lot of levels, as Bickell has been serviceable everytime the Hawks have called him up including a couple of games in the Nashville series. He has skated with Toews and Kane before, but for next year’s team I see him on the 4th line with Jake Dowell. I do not foresee a high cap number for Bickell.

To go off on a tangent here, with the Hawks having the following combination: a) cap problems, b) a lot of job openings and c) a lot of prospects, some of these prospects are realizing that if they take slightly less money this year, it might improve their chances of making the NHL.

Following this logic, the Blackhawks made a very interesting signing either late last night or early today. The Blackhawks agreed to terms with 2006 second round selection Igor Makarov on a 2 year deal worth $552,500 per year. The contract has an European escape clause as well, which would most likely indicate if Makarov doesn’t make the Hawks he’d head back to Russia for a year.

It’s been a while since most Hawks fans have seen Makarov, as he’s spent the last couple of years in the KHL. He’s played on 3rd and 4th lines on his team as he was buried behind older, more experienced players. Whether or not this has stunted his development is unknown. Most Hawk fans (on message boards this writer frequents) who saw Makarov at earlier prospect camps came away very impressed and to some he looked like “a man amongst boys”. Keep in mind these were prospect camps that former Blackhawks such as Kris Versteeg attended.

For a better talent analysis on what Makarov brings to the table, Hockeys Future has a breakdown here.

What does this all mean? I think Makarov is going to have every chance to make the Hawks next year. He’s ahead of most Hawk prospects in the fact that he’s already spent a couple years playing against men 10 years older than him. From all accounts, he’s not like most Russian players and can play a 2 way game, is gritty, has good hands and can provide a little offence. Sound like someone who played on the third line last year who now plays for Toronto? I am by no means saying that Makarov will replace Versteeg because that would be crazy, but let’s just say I would not be surprised to see him slotted on that 3rd line come October. Plus there’s the great $553K cap hit that improves his chances even more.

Without getting into a detailed number crunch, assuming a cap number of close to $2.75M for Niemi from the arbitrator, and Makarov being able to contribute, this lineup would be very close to the cap (thanks to Hawkscap.com for a number breakdown and a base for which to work with):

Brouwer ($1.03M)-Toews ($6.3M)-Kane ($6.3M)
Stalberg ($0.85M)-Sharp ($3.9M)-Hossa ($5.28M)
Kopecky ($1.2M)-Bolland($3.38M)-Makarov ($0.53M)
Bickell ($0.6M*)- Reasoner ($1.15M)-Dowell ($0.53M)

Keith ($5.54M) – Seabrook ($3.5M)
Campbell ($7.14M) – Hjalmarsson ($3.5M)
D5 ($0.8M) – UFA Veteran D6 ($0.8M)
Scott ($0.51M)

Niemi ($2.75M)
Toivenen ($0.55M)

Forwards total: $31.0M
Defencemen total: $21.8M
Goaltenders total: $3.3M

Hawks Cap after $4.2M bonus penalty: $55.2M
Total of this lineup: $56.1M

D5 will be one of Lalonde or Visnevskiy.

This lineup is close, and works under the cap if Reasoner is waived, or if the Hawks decide to go with 20 players as opposed to 21 players (Scott moves up to the 4th line in this scenario). Money can also be saved on the UFA veteran D6 is signed for less than $0.8M.

So there’s a rough guess of the lineup as of July 14th, 2010. We continue to wait for other dominos to fall.

Mid-July Summary

(c) Getty Images
The Hammer will be in Chicago for a while

The first couple of weeks of July haven't been too crazy when it comes to the Hawks, but there have been a couple things going on.

Hawks match offer for Hjalmarsson

Late last week the San Jose Sharks decided to adopt the mantra of “if we can’t beat them on the ice we’ll beat them in the boardroom” and signed Niklas Hjalmsarsson to a 4 year $14 million offer sheet. All sarcasm aside, the move was understandable from the perspective of San Jose GM Doug Wilson as they are high on Hjalmarsson and it put the screws to the Hawks in terms of their well-documented cap problems.

Earlier today Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman announced that the Blackhawks will in fact match the offer to Hjalmarsson. I’ve stated many times on this blog that Hjalmarsson is a key part of this team going forward and should be kept around. It’s obvious that the Family Bowman feels the same way.

While the $3.5M cap hit really puts the Hawks in a bad spot for 2010-11, having Hammer locked up for 4 years is definitely a good thing. His game continues to progress leaps and bounds. Considering the fact that he’s only played around 100 games in the NHL and is a top 4 defenceman on the Stanley Cup champs says a lot about the kid’s potential. The Hawks were trying to get Hjalmarsson in at around $2.75M/$3M and I can’t blame him or his agent for trying to get a longer term deal for more money. At the end of the day this is a business. So while for year 1 and year 2 of this deal the $3.5M might be a slight overpayment, I’m of the opinion that by year 3 and 4 this deal will be a bargain.

Hjalmarsson is an important cog of the penalty kill and is sound defensively. The minutes he plays are also of the high-risk variety as he’s often paired with Brian Campbell who isn’t exactly known for his defensive prowess (although Soup did show improvement there this year). I still think Hammer has untapped offensive potential, and will grow in the physicality department as his frame fills out.

So bottom line, I’m happy Hammer is a Hawk for a long time. In a summer where every dollar counts however, this extra $750K or so that went to Niklas could force the Hawks into a tough decision.

Niemi heads to arbitration

The Hawks continue to negotiate with Antii Niemi on a contract that would keep the Finnish netminder in Chicago. Niemi, a restricted free agent, filed for arbitration and the hearing is set for July 29th.

The arbitrator will hear both sides and come to a decision on a one-year or two-year contract for Niemi. The Blackhawks at this time will have the option of accepting the arbitrator’s ruling or walking away, thus allowing Niemi to become an unrestricted free agent.

As things stand right now for the Hawks, they will continue to negotiate with Antii in the time leading up until the arbitration hearing and then will take their chances on the arbitrator ruling for a contract that the Hawks can stomach this season.

I’ve set that number in the $2.5-$2.75M range after some number crunching. In other words, if the arbitrator rules in that range or less, accept the deal and bring in Niemi for the year or two. If the arbitrator rules for an amount over that range, then you walk away if you’re the Hawks and Niemi becomes a free agent.

Before people start telling me I’m crazy, let’s take some perspective here. Based on the Hawks’ cap issues for 2010-11 it’s very likely that the Hawks will have a difficult time repeating anyways. You have to think about the long-term picture (namely 2011-12). If keeping Niemi leads to paying a price of losing a player like Patrick Sharp, then walk away from Niemi. The reasons for this are as follows:

a)This is not exactly a great market for UFA goaltenders. There really aren’t really a lot of starting goaltending gigs available out there, and after seeing goaltenders like Niemi and Michael Leighton in the Stanley Cup Finals, teams are starting to adopt the philosophy of spending less on goaltending. There are still notable names out there on the market such as Marty Turco and Jose Theodore who could fill in for the Hawks as a one-year stopgap. Whether Niemi gets the same amount of money the arbitrator set out from another team remains to be seen. But there are options out there for the Hawks who would come in at close to $2M or less for one year.

b)As mentioned, if you’re the Hawks, you have to think more towards 2011-12 in my mind. First, you get to spend the same as everyone else in the NHL instead of having this $4.2M in bonus penalty carrying over. Second, all the young prospects who will be filling out the roster this year are going to be one year older and one year wiser. The future is still bright for the Hawks despite their issues for 2010-11. You could always go with the stop gap for next year in net, and then in 2011-12 the following goaltenders are available in UFA: JS Gigure, Tomas Vokoun, Ilya Bryzgalov, Craig Anderson and Jimmy Howard.

I guess in a worse case scenario you can go with Hannu Toivenen and Corey Crawford in net for a combined $1.3M, keep $1M in cap space and then acquire a goaltender at the deadline. I wouldn’t recommend this however.

So to summarize, if the Hawks do not get a favorable ruling on the arbitrator they have to walk away from Niemi, allow him to become a UFA and then find a goaltender this year in UFA for cheaper (Niemi is still an option here as outlined above). I prefer this option as compared to keeping Niemi over Patrick Sharp.

Who knows, maybe the arbitrator’s ruling is a good one for the Hawks. It’ll be the first thing that’s gone right this summer for the Hawks since June 9th.

Prospect Camp

The Hawks held their annual prospect camp and from all accounts the kids were working hard and trying to impress the Blackhawks brass. There is a realistic possibility that 3-4 of the kids there this weekend will be on the Hawks roster next year due to the aforementioned cap problems.

From most accounts, a couple players that stood out were defencemen Shaun Lalonde and Nick Leddy, as well as Swedish center Marcus Kruger. Lalonde has a chance to make the squad next year while Leddy and Kruger are still most likely a year or two away.

For a better summary of prospect camp, this writeup at committedindians.com gives a rundown of what happened this weekend.


So, the summer drags on. As more smaller signings are made (Bickell, Skille, Hendry?), etc, it’ll be easier to project a lineup. The most important domino is Niemi now. We’ll have to see how it plays out.

The Final Cut is the Deepest

(c)Getty Images
The Sedins and Ryan Kesler won't miss you Andrew, but us Hawks fans sure will.

Two years ago pretty much to the day, the Blackhawks decided to make a splash in free agency signing Cristobal Huet and Brian Campbell to huge contracts. Knowledgeable Hawks fans realized that in two years, when the contracts for Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith were up that the Hawks were going to have to lose some pieces of their team.

Fast forward to the present and that’s exactly what has happened. The Blackhawks completed (for the most part) making moves to get under the 2010-11 salary cap with the trades of Kris Versteeg to Toronto and Andrew Ladd to Atlanta. Both players will be missed without question. Versteeg, while extremely frustrating at times, is gritty and a very solid NHL player capable of slotting in on a 2nd or 3rd line for a team. Ladd is the type of player that winning teams have. A player whose contributions are rarely noticed on a boxscore, but contributions that are always noticed by teammates and coaches. The guy is a winner plain and simple.

It’s easy to sit here and blame Campbell and Huet’s contracts as the reason the Hawks have lost Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd and Kris Versteeg in the last 2 weeks. It’s partially accurate too. Or we can blame the RFA fiasco last summer on forcing this upon the Hawks. This is also partially accurate. Some fault definitely lies with the Hawks for creating this mess they were in.

Before you completely lay the blame there however, remember that if Campbell doesn’t come back early from injury, the Hawks might have been out to Nashville in Round 1. Remember the fact that if certain players aren’t slightly overpaid on RFA contracts when they were signed (Bolland, Sharp, Versteeg, Buff, etc), the Hawks are not hoisting the Stanley Cup. The Hawks took some risks to try to win the Stanley Cup before the Cap Armegeddon hit, and they did it. As I've said many times before, I take the tradeoff of some cap problems down the road if it means we've hoisted the Cup any day of the week.

The salary cap is what it is. Every team has to play by the same rules and I can accept that. The invoking of the salary cap has allowed teams from all over the league to be competitive. This, coupled with certain on-ice rule changes and an influx of charismatic young stars has the NHL is the best position it’s been in for a very long time.

As I said at the top, we all knew this day was coming. Knowing that it’s coming doesn’t make it any easier to digest, but here we are. What’s funny is that Huet’s contract isn’t the main reason (because he’s going to Europe or the minors and will be off the books regardless) the Hawks had to dump Versteeg and Ladd in the last couple days. The knockout blow for the Hawks was the fact that roughly $4M in bonuses payable to Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane (for winning the Conn Smythe and finishing top 10 in points respectively) is deducted off next year’s cap for the Hawks, leaving them at $55.2M to work with when the rest of the league has $59.4M.

This is the only thing that irritates me about this situation. The Hawks are being punished for their players having success. I’m not going to get into an in depth salary cap and CBA discussion, but just think about that from a high level perspective there for a second. I understand how the bonus cushion works and if you use it in one year has to come off a future year’s cap. Fair enough. But the CBA should allow some sort of flexibility in how this penalty is applied. Maybe allowing teams to spread it out over two years (much like how buyouts work) is an idea to be explored. Because the Hawks players were successful, one of Buff or Versteeg and Ladd are not going to be on the Hawks roster next year. It’s a little frustrating to say the least.

Reality is though, that it is what it is (to steal a saying from my cousin) and the Hawks will have to move on. Who knows, maybe the NHL and NHLPA in the next round of CBA negotiations will look at what happened with the Hawks and how they had to dismantle their Stanley Cup team and figure out a way to minimize the penalty for being successful.

There’s no question that the Hawks will be a weaker team in 2010-11 than they were in 2009-10. Buff, Versteeg and Ladd were all contributors to the Hawks' success and will be missed. But I credit Stan Bowman for doing a pretty good job given a difficult situation. Bowman was able to accumulate a number of picks and solid prospects in return for these players, and in a manner of speaking sold high on each of his 3 assets.

The Hawks core is still one of the best in the league, if not the best. When your forwards consist of players like Toews, Kane, Sharp, Hossa, Bolland and your top 4 Dmen are Keith, Seabrook, Campbell and Hjalmarsson, you’re going to be alright. So it obviously isn’t all doom and gloom for Hawks fans. What the Hawks need is a couple of these kids to develop into solid contributors. They’re not going to be asked to be superstars for the Hawks. They are going to be asked to out there and do their job.

The Hawks do lose a bit of grit and toughness with the losses of Buff, Versteeg and Ladd, but this is where guys like Jake Dowell, Bryan Bickell and Kyle Beach will have an opportunity to contribute.

At the end of the day, there’s no sugar coating it. The Hawks will miss all three of those players next year and on behalf of Hawks fans everywhere we wish them nothing but the best. It’s important however not to lose sight of the fact that the Hawks will still be a good team and the future is still very bright. The next entry will be another stab at next year’s roster and the prospects that will be competing for jobs with the Hawks in the next year or two. I’m going to hold off a couple days on that to allow for additional chips to fall from the start of the unrestricted free agency period.

And now we wait...

(c) Getty Images
Can the Hawks find a way to keep Ladd?


In what was expected to be a pretty busy weekend for the Hawks, GM Stan Bowman was relatively quiet on the trade front, as much of the league was. There were not many deals done between GMs unless they involved draft pick swaps.

Which leads us to the draft. The Hawks made 5 selections in the first 2 rounds and the theme of the draft was taking big players with skill and who can skate. Chicago used their first selection on Kevin Hayes from Massachusetts high school at 24 overall. Other draft picks included Ludvig Rensfeldt (great name) from Sweden at pick 35, US-born defencemen Justin Holl and Stephen Johns at picks 54 and 60 respectively and goaltender Kent Simpson at pick 58. The Blackhawks also traded one of their second round picks for Jimmy Hayes (brother of first round pick Kevin) who was a 2009 2nd round selection of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

I’m not going to sit here and pretend like I’ve seen these kids play or know how they are going to project in 3-5 years. That’s what makes the NHL draft such a crapshoot. The Hawks went into the weekend with the goal of further supplementing their pipeline of prospects and did achieve this. Only time will tell how these kids pan out and a key from this point on is the proper development. We’ll have to re-evaluate the 2010 draft in a couple years.

In the very least, Bowman now has additional ammo to make deals at the 2011 or 2012 trade deadline if the Hawks need to pick up additional pieces at the deadline to make a Cup run. You can never have enough good assets in your system.

As I mentioned above, it was surprising that there wasn’t another trade involving the Hawks this weekend. While Stan Bowman has indicated the Hawks do not have to make any more trades for salary cap reasons, it is unlikely that this is the case. Kris Versteeg and Andrew Ladd’s names were those most mentioned over the weekend.

News came out yesterday that the Hawks did indeed qualify key restricted free agents Niklas Hjalmarsson, Antii Niemi, and the aforementioned Andrew Ladd. While this doesn’t mean the players are going to sign these qualifying offers, it does ensure that the Hawks would receive compensation should another team sign them to an offer sheet. It also doesn’t prevent the Hawks from continuing to negotiate with their RFAs in order to sign them before July 1st.

So we now wait. Free agency opens on July 1st and while this is not exactly a bumper crop of unrestricted free agents, July 1st is going to mark a very important day for general managers. There’s a good chance a lot of these GMs are not going to get their UFA targets, meaning they will have to go the trade route to improve their team. I fully expect Stan to be a busy man in the next 2 weeks.

We will also soon know the answers to the questions that are unanswered at this time, such as what exactly the Hawks 2010-11 salary cap is after bonuses, and what it’s going to take to sign Hjalmarsson, Niemi and Ladd. It should still be a very interesting couple of weeks upcoming for the Stanley Cup Champs.

Making Moves

First off, congratulations to Duncan Keith for winning the Norris trophy as the NHL’s best defenceman. It was a well-deserved award for DK, and caps off a remarkable year for him of winning the Stanley Cup, winning an Olympic gold medal and now the Norris trophy.

On to the bigger news regarding the Hawks, with no offence to Keith’s accomplishment of course.

Yesterday, the Chicago Blackhawks completed a blockbuster trade that sent one of their playoff heroes Dustin Byfuglien to the Atlanta Thrashers. Details of the 9 player/pick deal are as follows:

To Atlanta:
• Dustin Byfuglien
• Ben Eager
• Brent Sopel
• Akim Aliu

To Chicago:
• New Jersey’s 2010 1st rounder (pick 24)
• New Jersey’s 2010 2nd rounder (pick 54)
• Marty Reasoner
• Jeremy Morin
• Joey Crabb

In another move, the Blackhawks sent Colin Fraser to the Edmonton Oilers for a 2010 6th round pick.

Good job by Stan Bowman on these two trades. Obviously with the salary cap mess the Hawks are dealing with, bodies were going to have to go. I don’t like the situation as obviously, as a Stanley Cup Champion you’d love to keep your roster intact and defend your title. But the reality is that this was not going to be possible for the Hawks in 2010-11 and that moves were going to have to be made.

The Hawks were able to get something in return for Ben Eager and Brent Sopel, the latter whom many believed had negative trade value. Akim Aliu was a prospect who was behind too many others in the Chicago organization, and Atlanta GM Rick Dudley was Aliu’s biggest supporter during Dudley’s time in the Chicago organization. So it’s not surprising to see Dudley want Aliu. As for Fraser, the Hawks do not have the luxury of spending $800K-$1M on a 4th liner this season as every hundred thousand dollars saved will be huge.

The contributions of Eager, Sopel and Fraser to winning the Stanley Cup will not be forgotten by Hawks fans.

As for what the Hawks received, they got their asking price for Byfuglien, which was a 1st rounder and a good prospect in Jeremy Morin. Morin had a solid World Junior Championship for the USA this past year and will be given all the time he needs to develop. Marty Reasoner could be a cheap replacement for John Madden as he makes $1.15M this year. The Hawks could still turn around and trade him in future moves. Joey Crabb was just a contract sent to Chicago so Atlanta could get under the max of 50 contracts allowed, and will most likely be a UFA in a week or so.

Most importantly, the Hawks were able to shave approximately $4.2M off their payroll in this move and won’t have to worry about qualifying Ben Eager. This will allow them some flexibility to qualify their RFAs like Ladd, Hjalmarsson and Niemi.

The Hawks now hold 5 picks in the first 2 rounds of the 2010 Draft (picks 24, 30, 43, 54 and 60). Whether the Hawks will try to move up to grab a top prospect, or make all 5 picks remains to be seen. Either way, these picks will go a long way to help replenishing the farm with solid prospects.

Which brings us to Buff. It sucks to see him go, without question. But as I’ve set out in my previous blogs, a couple pieces from the secondary core are going to have to be moved this offseason. Bowman decided this was the best deal at this time.

Byfuglien’s contributions to the Stanley Cup will never be forgotten by Hawks fans. He was a monster in the playoffs and was a nightmare for Vancouver and San Jose fans. One downside of this deal is that Roberto Luongo won't be having nightmares anymore. Buff will definitely be missed. But this decision came down to Buff or Patrick Sharp (via my number crunching), and in my opinion the Hawks chose correctly. Sharp is a better player and fills a need at center the Hawks have. And it was an opportunity to sell high on Byfuglien. There is a chance he continues to evolve into an elite power forward. Or he reverts back to the inconsistent player he was for much of the season. That’s now Atlanta’s issue.

Where do the Hawks go from here? Really, it’s tough to say for certain as we currently do not know the exact Hawks cap number. If I had to offer predictions, I’m still pretty sure that Versteeg is next, but it’s tough to say now. Bowman has bought himself a little bit of time now after this deal. Perhaps one of Ladd or Versteeg can still be back, it’s tough to say.

Right now, the unknowns are:

• The amount of bonuses that will be deducted from the Hawks 2010-11 salary cap number
• How much Ladd, Hjalmarsson and Niemi are willing to sign for

Once that’s known, it’ll be easier to make projections on what the lineup will look like.

But for now, I’ll wrap this up by saying thank you to “Big Buff”, “Catfish”,”Benny” and “Fraz” for your heart and contributions to the Blackhawks and best of luck in your new homes.

Part 5- Hangovers...The Chicago Blackhawks Salary Cap Nightmare

Parts 1 thru 4 below.

While the rosters I’ve set out above are not as strong as the 2009-10 Chicago Blackhawks roster that won the Stanley Cup, it’s still a very good team. And the future is still very bright for the Hawks.

Like all Stanley Cup champs in the cap era, it’s difficult to keep your team together. That’s what the NHL wanted when they instituted the cap, and it’s worked in that regard.

As Hawks fans, it sucks we can’t see this team kept together as it’s obvious from all the interviews and behind the scenes stuff we see, that this team has great chemistry. Not to mention they’re pretty good at hockey too.

The future is more than bright though for the Blackhawks. Anytime that your core consists of all-world players such as Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, you’re going to be good for a long time. Unfortunately in 2010-11 they’re going to lose some key supporting pieces, but that’s the nature of the beast.

I look at 2010-11 as somewhat of a “fiscal correction” for the Hawks. The Hawks are going to have to work with a cap of $55-$56M or so whereas the rest of the league will have $59M to work with. This is only for 2010-11 however. Once 2011-12 rolls around, the Hawks will be able to spend the same as everyone else.

The NHL seems to be growing and it wouldn’t be crazy to think the cap moves up another $2M or so in 2011-12. So the Hawks would have a roster at $56M and still be able to spend another $5M or so in 2011-12. Some of this will go towards Seabrook’s new contract (RFA after next year and will probably get $2M increase), but the rest of it can go towards bringing in free agents to help supplement the roster in 2 years time.

Which brings us to another point. Gone are the days where free agents would need a lot more money from the Hawks to consider playing there. Now, the opposite is going to happen. Free agents will be willing to take less money for the opportunity to play for a Stanley Cup contender, in the great city of Chicago. This will also help the Hawks in the long run.

Finally, any trades of Versteeg, Byfuglien and Ladd (or whoever else gets traded) are going to land the Hawks a number of draft picks and prospects which will help for the future as well. It’s possible that if the Hawks hit on these picks the team could be even stronger 2 years from now.

So while the next couple of weeks and months here are going to suck as the Hawks try to get under the cap and are forced to trade away some good players, it’s still refreshing to know that this team is going to be good for a long time. Oh, and they went for it in 2009-10 and won the Stanley Cup. I don’t know about you, but I’ll take that trade-off any day of the week.

Part 4- Hangovers...The Chicago Blackhawks Salary Cap Nightmare

Will Buff be back?

Parts 1 thru 3 below. Part 5 above.

What would I do if I was the Hawks GM? Allow me first to say that I’m sure the job isn’t easy and trades are always a moving target. In other words, it takes 2 to make a deal. However, I do believe that a lot of teams would be interested in the Hawks players.

In any trade, the Hawks will have to take back prospects or draft picks.

Here’s what I do.

1) Trade Kris Versteeg for picks or prospects. At $3M, Steeger has to be the first to go. This gives the Hawks a little breathing room to qualify RFAs here in the next couple of days. I know that Florida has 5 picks in the top 50 of the 2010 draft. There’s a good chance Versteeg is traded to Florida, the Islanders or Carolina here in the next couple of days.

2) Trade Andrew Ladd for picks or prospects – Not that I want to, but Ladd has to go because of the whole rule that states a team can only be 7.5% over the cap during the offseason. Because they can’t put Huet in the minors until September, if the Hawks want to resign Hammer and Niemi, they have to make deals before July 1st. The Hawks can’t afford to pay him $2-2.5M a season. Some team will trade for him and get a very solid player

3) Re-sign Hjalmarsson. An interesting idea was brought up that you offer Hammer a 2 year deal paying him $1.5M this year and then $3M in the second year. This works out to a $2.25M cap hit and allows him to be qualified for $3M in 2012 when he’s still RFA.

4)Re-sign Niemi. I’d offer Niemi around $2.5-$2.75M. If you’re worried about cap hit, give him less money but only a 1 year deal so he’s a UFA next year (benefit to the player). If he wants a longer term deal and is willing to sign for somewhere in that range, great. I’ll assume he does. But the Hawks can’t break the bank. If he wants more money, sign a UFA netminder for this year at $2M or so.

5)4th liners. If Burish and Fraser want to accept pay cuts or settle for $700K or so a year, I’d consider bringing them back on the 4th line. Otherwise, those spots are going to be filled by cheaper replacements. For this first scenario, I’m going to assume it’s the cheaper replacements. I’ll also assume Jordan Hendry wants to come back and will take his qualifying offer of $675K.

That brings us to the following lineup:

Buff ($3M)-Toews ($6.3M)-Kane ($6.3M)
Kopecky ($1.2M) – Sharp ($3.9M)- Hossa ($5.25M)
Brouwer ($1.03M) – Bolland ($3.38M)-Skille ($0.9M)
Bickell ($0.53M)-Dowell ($0.53M)- 4th liner ($0.5M)

Forwards: $32.8M

Keith ($5.54M)-Seabrook ($3.5M)
Campbell ($7.14M)-Hjalmarsson ($2.25M)
Lalonde ($0.8M)-Hendry ($0.68M)

Defence: $19.8M

Niemi ($2.75M)
Crawford ($0.8M)

Goalies: $3.6M

Cap of $56M, total of the lineup is $56.2M, $200K over.

So this lineup is over by $300,000. The Hawks still wouldn’t have a 13th F or 7th defenceman. A couple things to consider. First, if you get Hammer and Niemi for less than $5M, this lineup could actually work. Hawks management could also make the decision that if NIemi wants too much, you go sign a cheaper UFA goalie like Martin Biron for about $1M less and this works as well.

Also, the bonus cushion is still in effect next year, and Lalonde has about $200K in bonus (i.e. his salary is $0.6M) and if he doesn’t make the bonus it doesn’t count towards the final cap number. This bonus cushion also increases Kyle Beach’s chance to make the team as he has $325K in bonuses. In this scenario he doesn’t but in the next scenario he does.

Another thing that could work in the Hawks favor is the cap for them is slightly higher than this and this 20 man roster (which is all you need on opening night) is under the cap.

So this lineup is close. However, accounting for the fact that you’d probably want to carry a 21st player (either a 13th forward or 7th Dman), and the possibility the cap is a little lower than $56M you’re left with…

6)Trade Dustin Byfuglien for picks and prospects. There’s pros and cons to this obviously. It could be a great sell high point on Buff. But maybe he’s finally turned the light on, and playing with Toews and Kane he could become an elite power forward. Plus he’s versatile and can play D in a pinch if needed. He provides value to this team. I don’t want to see him traded. However, such is the mess the Hawks are in. So assuming Buff is dealt, we’re left with the following.

Beach ($1.2M)-Toews ($6.3M)-Kane ($6.3M)
Kopecky ($1.2M) – Sharp ($3.9M)- Hossa ($5.25M)
Brouwer ($1.03M) – Bolland ($3.38M)-Skille ($0.9M)
Bickell ($0.53M)-Fraser ($0.75M)- Burish ($0.75M)
Dowell (0.53M)

Forwards: $32.0M

Keith ($5.54M)-Seabrook ($3.5M)
Campbell ($7.14M)-Hjalmarsson ($2.25M)
Lalonde ($0.8M)-Hendry ($0.68M)

Defence: $19.8M

Niemi ($2.75M)
Crawford ($0.8M)

Goalies: $3.6M

Cap of $56M, Cap total of $55.5M, cap space of $500K to use for call-ups during season, or to find a slightly better 6th Dman than Hendry, or to use as a buffer incase Hammer and Niemi want slightly more.

This scenario fits under the cap. It’s still a pretty good team, but not the same as having Buff in the lineup. Plus you have a little more bonus cushion room with Beach and Lalonde in the lineup.

Obviously every $100K saved here and there is going to help. If Stan Bowman can get Niemi and Hjalmarsson to sign cap-friendlier contracts, chances of keeping Buff increase. If Niemi wants too much Stan may decide that Buff + Hammer + UFA goalie is better for the team than Niemi + Hammer + Beach. They are not easy decisions to say the least.

One other card the Hawks could play with guys like Skille, Burish and Fraser is to offer one-way contracts (can’t be sent to Rockford unless they clear waivers) so they sign for less money. This will have more value to Skille as it gives him a shot in the NHL. Maybe by doing so you get Skille on a 1 year, $700K contract and save a couple hundred thousand that way as well. Like I said, Stan has to get creative.

Part 3 - Hangovers...The Chicago Blackhawks Salary Cap Nightmare

Offer sheet target?

Parts 1 and 2 below. Parts 4 and 5 above.


The Hawks have to face two issues here in the next couple of days.

a) Qualifying RFAs
Didn’t we go through this last year? Problem is that this year, with the Hawks so tight to the cap, they are having trouble qualifying their RFA this year. The CBA sets out that you can exceed the cap limit by 7.5% in the offseason so long as you’re under by opening night. The Hawks can put Huet in the AHL, but they can’t do that until late September, so in the meantime the Hawks have to dance around this issue. Which means that trades have to be made here before July 1st because..

b) Potential offer sheets for Hjalmarsson and Niemi

Teams who want to screw over the Hawks will be looking to poach Hammer or Niemi with offer sheets. So, it would be wise for Stan to get on this ASAP. Either that, or free up the cap room so that they could match an offer sheet if necessary. Again, trades have to be made before July 1st.

Preferably you want to keep both guys. But if you have to pick one over the other (for whatever reason..namely, NIemi wants too much), you sign Hjalmarsson and find a UFA goaltender as a stop gap for one year.


Finally, we get to my assumptions. As set out above, the cap will be $59M, but for the Hawks we’re assuming it’s somewhere between $55 and $56M. For now I’ll say $56M.

Other assumptions include:

1) The big one here, that Huet is not on the team next year in some way, shape or form. Nobody is going to trade for him unless the Hawks use Sharp as “sweetener” in the deal which I wouldn’t agree with. So I’m assuming Huet is in Europe or playing for Rockford next year. There’s really no two ways about it. If the Hawks want to remain a very good hockey team next year, they have to eat Huet’s salary.

2) That Sopel is not on the roster next year either. I believe they’ll be able to find a taker for Sopel near the start of training camp after UFA is done and some team doesn’t grab the Dman they want. He only has one year left on his deal, and was a valuable (for his standard of play) piece of the PK unit during the Cup run.

3) That you can’t really spend more than $5M on Niemi and Hjalmarsson combined. You’ll see why below. It’s up to Stan to negotiate well and be creative. Like I said above, if you’re forced via offer sheet to pick one over the other, do what it takes to keep Hjalmarsson and find a goalie for $1.5-$2M for next season.

4) That despite it being a solution to a lot of problems, the Hawks won’t be able to trade Brian Campbell. Soupy does bring a lot of value on the ice in the Hawks transition game and should be commended for the fact that if he doesn’t come back from injury early against Nashville, we’re not saying Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks right now. But if they can move him, by all means.

5) Ben Eager will not be back. He made $1M on the 4th line and the Hawks can’t afford to pay a 4th liner that much this year.

I mentioned above that there are prospects who are going to figure into next year’s roster. I’ve set out below these prospects status and cap hit (or assumed cap hit):

• Kyle Beach ($1.2M)
• Jake Dowell ($0.53M)
• Jack Skille (RFA - $0.9M)
• Brian Bickell (RFA - $0.6M)
• Corey Crawford ($0.8M)
• Shaun Lalonde ($0.8M)
• Mathis Olimb ($0.6M)
• Brian Connelly ($0.8M)

So what’s the plan?

Part 2 - Hangovers...The Chicago Blackhawks Salary Cap Nightmare

Part 1 below. Parts 3 thru 5 above

To answer the question on how much the cap will be, nobody will really know for sure what the Hawks cap number will be next year until sometime early next week. However, we do know that the cap will be between $59 and $59.5M or so. For the rest of this discussion I’m going to assume $59M for the NHL in 2010-11.

However, there is one big issue that is coming into play for the Hawks cap number. This deals with the belief that in 2009-10 Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane hit their bonuses and these must be carried over to 2010-11 as the Hawks were pressed right up against the cap last year. If Toews and Kane hit all their bonuses, it’s possible that $4M will be carried over to the Hawks cap in 2010-11. Talk about having a jagerbomb right before the night ends, the Hawks will definitely be feeling the sting of these bonuses this year.

Nobody knows for sure if it’s going to be $4M that comes off the Hawks cap. The CBA is vague in regards to how the Long Term Injury Exemption (LTIE) can be used to help offset this. The Hawks had Dave Bolland, Adam Burish and Marian Hossa on the IR at points during 2009-10 and the LTIE can be claimed retroactively. Whether or not this will help the Hawks is unknown at this point. Plus, the Hawks had around $300K under last year’s cap so that will eat up some of the $4M. With this in mind, and nobody sure about the bonuses quite yet, I’m going to say that it’s approximately $3M that comes off the Hawks cap in 2010-11 for the purposes of this discussion.

In my blog before the playoffs, I placed the Hawks players in groups. This can be seen here.

Also, I ranked 7 players from the “secondary core” in that entry in terms of importance to the Hawks going forward. This is the group from which the Hawks are going to have to trade a body or three in order to get under the cap. At the time of the original entry I reserved my right to change my mind on order of importance. With that said, here’s the rankings after the Stanley Cup run.

1)Patrick Sharp – Sharp had a great playoff run and deserved some consideration for the Conn Smythe. His versatility to play both center and wing and in all situations is of incredible value to this team. He has become one of the best two-way players in the game. The Hawks offence really took off once Queneville moved Sharp to center. That said, he is the player that would fetch the most in a trade, so it has to be considered if there is a great offer on the table. Stan Bowman has said they do not want to trade Sharp and I don’t blame him.

2) Niklas Hjalmarsson – “Hammer” continues to improve and has proven he can be a top 4 defenseman on an elite team. While he did have his struggles at times (Game 4 against Philly comes to mind), he was for the most part solid in the pressure cooker of the Stanley Cup playoffs at the age of 22. Scotty Bowman may not be a GM, but he knows hockey talent and when he says this kid is going to be a great player, I defer to the opinion of the guy with 12 Cup rings. Hjalmarsson is an RFA and must be signed.

3) David Bolland – Bolland struggled for most of 2009-10 after recovering from back surgery. However, once the playoffs started he elevated his game and played the role of shutdown center to perfection as he frustrated the Sedins, Joe Thornton and Mike Richards. “The Rat” also chipped in offensively as well. Bolland is a smart, all-around player and provides significant value to this team. He ranks ahead of the next two players on this list because the Hawks currently lack depth at center.

4) Antii Niemi – The kid from Finland was a rock for the Blackhawks during their Cup run. He is still raw as he doesn’t have much NHL experience but the talent is there. His importance to the Cup victory cannot be understated. However, with the amount of goaltenders on the market and more teams following the “Detroit” model (not spending a lot on goaltending), he is replaceable to me. It will all depend on the contract negotiations and how much he wants.

5) Dustin Byfuglien – The light switch turned on for Buff in the playoffs as he was an absolute force in the final three rounds. If Byfuglien plays with that kind of intensity and focus on a more consistent basis, he’s higher than Niemi on this list as players with his skill set don’t exactly grow on trees. However, that’s the issue with Buff, consistency. Believe me when I say that I don’t want to trade him. But it might be a perfect sell high point on Buff. Just make sure to trade him to the Eastern Conference.

6) Andrew Ladd – Ladd again had a solid playoffs and is a great “glue” guy to have on your team. At age 24 and with 2 Stanley Cup rings, he could be this generation’s Mike Keane-type player. On the Hawks however, he’s a 3rd line player because of the great depth the Hawks possess. And to pay $2-2.5M on a 3rd liner is a luxury that the Hawks do not have right now. For this reason, I expect Ladd to get dealt.

7) Kris Versteeg – Versteeg can dazzle one moment and then make you want to throw your remote into the TV the next. He had a very good playoffs for the Hawks though. Like Ladd, the Hawks do not have the luxury to pay a 3rd line player $3M per season. I like Versteeg’s ability to play in all situations, and whatever team trades for him is going to get a very good player. Plus there will be less singing in the Hawks locker room. Best of luck to you Steeger.

Part 1 - Hangovers...The Chicago Blackhawks Salary Cap Nightmare

These guys weren't hungover the next day..or week.

Parts 2 thru 5 above

The party has been going on in the city of Chicago and for Blackhawks fans everywhere for the last couple of weeks. Deservedly so I might add. When your team hasn’t won the Stanley Cup since 1961, well you deserve to enjoy every moment of the celebration.

Like pretty much every morning after a good bender, you have to deal with the hangover. Unfortunately for the Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks (damn that feels good to say that), they forgot to take their Gatorade the night before to help deal with the morning after.

I’m referring to the 2010-11 salary cap mess that a number of knowledgeable Hawks fans saw coming 2 years ago when ludicrous contracts were handed out by Dale Tallon to Brian Campbell, Cristobal Huet for starters, and then overpayments (albeit slight) were made to restricted free agents Kris Versteeg, Cam Barker and Dave Bolland last offseason. While Tallon deserves a lot of credit for putting together the roster that won the Stanley Cup, he also deserves a lot of the blame for the mess the Hawks are in.

As reported by a number of news outlets, the Hawks are currently at roughly at $57 million spent on 14 players for the 2010-11 season. After the NHLPA voted yesterday to take the cap escalator, the Salary Cap for next season is expected to be roughly between $59 and $59.5M. Obviously the Hawks don’t have a lot of wiggle room and need to make some moves.

I could spend a lot of time going through the legalities of the cap, but to be honest, not even the best analysts can decipher what happens in certain situations. There’s still a lot of grey to deal with and only those inside the NHL offices know for sure. There’s a number of things that can impact what the Hawks cap limit is next year and I’ll touch on those later. This entry will be set out as follows:

1) The lay of the land – What players are under contract, who’s a UFA, who’s an RFA
2) What’s the Hawks’ 2010-11 Salary Cap number and who do we want to keep?
3) Current issues and Assumptions
4) Scenarios
5) Future

The players the Hawks have under contract are:
• Jonathan Toews - $6.3M
• Patrick Kane - $6.3M
• Marian Hossa - $5.25M
• Patrick Sharp - $3.9M
• David Bolland - $3.38M
• Kris Versteeg - $3.08M
• Dustin Byfuglien - $3.0M
• Tomas Kopecky - $1.2M
• Troy Brouwer - $1.03M
• Brian Campbell - $7.14M
• Duncan Keith - $5.54M
• Brent Seabrook - $3.5M
• Brent Sopel - $2.33M
• Cristobal Huet - $5.63M

The following players are unrestricted free agents: Kim Johnsson, John Madden, Nick Boynton, Adam Burish

The following player are restricted free agents: Andrew Ladd, Ben Eager, Antii Niemi, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Jordan Hendry, Colin Fraser

There are also players who played for Rockford who are going to be part of this discussion, but I’ll get to them and their status in part 3.

So what exactly is the Hawks salary cap number for next year?

There are no words..but I’ll try anyways

The photo every kid playing hockey dreams to be a part of

I’m sure that after watching 2 months of scintellating playoff hockey, a number of us have watched the commercials that the NHL has pumped out. There’s a number of History Will be Made commercials that are great, but for my money, the best commercial they’ve put out is the ”No Words” commercial.

On June 9th, 2010, a day that will forever be etched in the memories of Hawks fans, the Chicago Blackhawks defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 4-3 in OT to win their first Stanley Cup in 49 years.

As I try to sum up my feelings, I keep coming back to the title. There really are no words.

My brother and I have been Hawks since we were young enough to know what hockey was. My dad, who spent many years as a young man in Chicago brainwashed us and we’ve been Hawks fans ever since.

Finally, after countless kicks to the groin, heartbreak and just the realization that the organization was being mismanaged, the Blackhawks have reached hockey’s pinnacle.

The way it all happened was bizarre, with Patrick Kane sprinting down the ice past teammates who were wondering “what is he doing? And where is the puck?” towards Antii Niemi who had no idea what was going on. I will never forget that moment. Watching the game at my parents’ place with my dad and my brother and standing (because I couldn’t sit all game) and pacing in the living room will be a memory I'll take with me for a lifetime.

I will remember seeing the Flyers players stopping. I will remember asking my brother “did the puck go out of play? Where is the puck?”. I will remember watching Kane throwing his gloves and stick in the air and then immediately turning to my brother confused asking “did we just win?”. I will remember hugging my brother and dad upon the realization that yes, the Chicago Blackhawks have just won the Stanley Cup. And I will definitely remember the tears welling up in my eyes after watching Jonathan Toews hoisting the Stanley Cup over his head.

I could spend a lot of keystrokes praising everyone who had a hand in making this dream come true for Hawks fans everywhere. Rocky Wirtz. The Q-Stache. And most importantly every single player in that dressing room.

The Stanley Cup is the toughest trophy in professional sports to win. The Playoffs are a 2 month war of attrition, both mentally and phyiscally. To see the heart, resilency and commitment to each other that these players have shown is awesome.

So while I still try to let this all sink in and sum up my feelings, it’s still a bit of a struggle to do so. But there are a few words that do apply. Thank you. Thank you to the Chicago Blackhawks for allowing Blackhawk fans everywhere to share this feeling that we can’t put into words.

The Pending Chicago Blackhawks 2010-11 Salary Cap Apocolypse - Part 3

To trade Sharp or not? Very tough question with no easy answer.

Part 1 and 2 are below.

I’ll outline a couple of player decisions at first, put together my base roster and lines, and then discuss the player decisions a little more afterwards.

1) Re-sign Niklas Hjalmarsson and Antii Niemi for around $4M combined. This number may move up or down slightly given playoff performances. That said, I think these 2 are the priorities of the offseason in terms of RFAs.

2) Buy out Cristobal Huet. Again, I’m assuming that the burying in Rockford idea is a no go, and the Hawks weren’t able to trade him. All you’re left with then is the buy out option at $1.875M per season.

3) Bury Brent Sopel in the minors. This may be the point where I use a little magic, but I think that this is a possibility. Some team might take him for a late draft pick with just one year on his contract as well. Bottom line, Sopel cannot be on the roster.

4) Re-sign Andrew Ladd to a 2 year $3.8M contract.

5) Do not re-sign the following: John Madden, Kim Johnsson. As much as I like these players, they just don’t fit in the salary cap.

6) Do no re-sign Ben Eager. He’d have to be qualified at $1M or so as an RFA and that’s just too much for a 4th liner given the cap.

7) I would consider Burish or Fraser for a 13th forward role, but only at the right price. If not, they're not back.

8) Jack Skille, Brian Bickell and Jake Dowell make the team. Also, one of the Hawks D prospects, either Lalonde or Connelly make the squad.

9) Re-sign Jordan Hendry at $0.6M as a number 6 or 7 Dman.

10) Trade Kris Versteeg and Dustin Byfuglien. Traded for what? I’ll discuss that below.

Which brings us to the following base lineup:

Brouwer (1.025M)-Toews (6.3M)-Kane (6.3M)
Sharp (3.9M) - Bolland (3.4M)- Hossa (5.25M)
Ladd (1.9M) - 3rd Line Center- Skille (0.85M)
Bickell (0.525M)- Dowell (0.525M) - Kopecky (1.2M)

Keith (5.54M) – Seabrook (3.5M)
Campbell (7.14M) – Hjalmarsson (2.0M)
Lalonde (0.6M) – Hendry (0.6M)

Niemi (2.0M)
Back-up G (1.0M)

Huet Buyout (1.875M)

Cap hit: 55.4M
Cap: 57.7M
Cap space: 2.3M needing a 3rd line center and either a 13F/7D

A couple points here. So Buff and Versteeg are traded. For each of them I would be looking for near-NHL ready prospects, preferably centers or goaltenders, or draft picks. One player I would target is Andrew Cogliano in Edmonton. I feel he’s under-utilized and won’t be commanding a hefty pay raise next year. He could slot in nicely as the 3rd line center and make around 1-1.3M a season. Or these trades could bring back a young, cheap 5/6 D man. I’ll assume that the Hawks just get prospects though for the rest of this.

I would prefer to have another veteran defenceman to stabilize the 5/6 pairing. Boynton is an option if he’s willing to sign for less than $1M and the Hawks carry Hendry as a 7D. Fraser could be an option to make the team here as well if you’re willing to have Dowell or Fraser as the 3rd line center. I probably would look for other options first, but it is a cost-effective solution.

You’ll also notice a couple other things. First, every hundred thousand bucks the Hawks can save is going to go a long way, whether it be in the Hammer/Niemi contracts or in the backup G contract. Also, just imagine for a second that you don’t have the Huet buyout there, that somehow he miraculously got traded or he was buried on the Rock. Then, that roster has $4.1M in cap space with jut a 3rd line Center, a better 3rd pairing defenceman and a 13th forward, and you’d still have about $1 million left. This is what Stan needs to convince Rocky of on why burying Huet in the minors could be huge. That extra $2M to work with is pretty big. All of a sudden you’re left with this situation:

Brouwer (1.025M)-Toews (6.3M)-Kane (6.3M)
Sharp (3.9M) - Bolland (3.4M)- Hossa (5.25M)
Ladd (1.9M) - 3rd Line Center- Skille (0.85M)
Bickell (0.525M)- Dowell (0.525M) - Kopecky (1.2M)
13F

Keith (5.54M) – Seabrook (3.5M)
Campbell (7.14M) – Hjalmarsson (2.0M)
Lalonde (0.6M) – veteran 5D
Hendry (0.6M)

Niemi (2.0M)
Back-up G (1.0M)

Cap hit: 53.6M
Cap: 57.7M
Cap space: 4.1M needing a 3rd line center, better 5D (possibly acquired in Buff/Versteeg trade) and a 13F if you so choose.

This is workable. You could spend roughly $3M combined on your 3rd line center and veteran 5th Dman and still have about $1M in cap space at the start of the year which would allow you to pick up roughly an additional $4M in cap hit at the trade deadline to improve the team.

You could take this one step further as we also come back to the center problem. Another way for the Hawks to save an extra $1M or so is to trade Sharp for a center and put Beach on the squad. Teams would be lining up for Patrick Sharp so this may be realistic. I’m thinking along the lines of a younger, cheaper center already in the NHL in exchange for Sharp. I’ll just assume for illustration that the Rangers are willing to give up a guy like Dubinsky ($1.85M cap hit) in a deal for him. That may be an ideal scenario, but for argument's sake this brings us to:

Brouwer (1.025M)-Toews (6.3M)-Kane (6.3M)
Beach (1.2M) – Dubinsky (1.85M)- Hossa (5.25M)
Ladd (1.9M) – Bolland (3.4M)- Skille (0.85M)
Bickell (0.525M)- Dowell (0.525M) - Kopecky (1.2M)
13F

Keith (5.54M) – Seabrook (3.5M)
Campbell (7.14M) – Hjalmarsson (2.0M)
Lalonde (0.6M) – veteran 5D
Hendry (0.6M)

Niemi (2.0M)
Back-up G (1.0M)

Cap hit: 52.8M
Cap: 57.7M
Cap space: 4.9M needing a better 5D and a 13F if you so choose.

You could even get by with a Huet buyout in this case and still have $3M left for a defenceman and a 3rd forward.


So there are options. That first option is the base option as outlined, and can be tweaked here and there. There will be hard decisions that have to be made, but that’s the reality of the situation.

I personally prefer the second option as I value Patrick Sharp on this team and I’m of the opinion that Rocky is making a lot of money on this squad right now and that he should pony some of that cash up by burying Huet in order to help keep this squad contending for the Stanley Cup. Especially when ticket prices are rising by as much as I’m hearing they are. Sometimes you do have to clean up the messes made by your employees (Tallon) in order to make sure the entire company doesn’t pay the price for longer than it has to. This applies in this situation. So as a Hawks fan I’m asking you Rocky, please take that money that has come out of our pockets as fans in order to make sure this team stays a contender for the Stanley Cup. It can be done and really it falls to you Rocky.