(c) Dave Sandford - Getty Images
Kyle Beach finds himself on the bubble this season
Part 1 outlines the rationale with coming to these projections.
These players are locked into the roster for opening night (assuming if you believe what Bowman has said about Crawford getting his chance this year).Those italicized are most likely on the team barring them crapping the bed in training camp:
Goalies (2): Marty Turco, Corey Crawford
Defencemen (5): Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brian Campbell, Jordan Hendry
Forwards (11): Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, David Bolland, Troy Brouwer, Tomas Kopecky, Brian Bickell, Jake Dowell, Viktor Stalberg, Jack Skille
21st man/nuclear weapon with his fists for when the Hawks play St. Louis (13F or 7D): John Scott
This brings us to a total of 2, maybe 3 spots up for grabs. The last defenceman spot will either be a veteran UFA or one of Ivan Vishnevsky or Shawn Lalonde. There is a forward spot available, and this will likely come down to Kyle Beach, Igor Makarov and Jeff Taffe. There may be a UFA in there like a Tim Kennedy, but that remains to be seen. Lastly, Hannu Toivenen will battle Corey Crawford for the backup goaltender spot, with Crawford having the inside track.
During the year, the Hawks will have injury call ups or carry a 22nd player. As seen in the first section, the daily cap hit of the players on the Rockford Express is between $2,600-$4,400 per day. For the purpose of this projection, I’ll assume $3,500 per day, and that 100 days the Hawks have a 22nd player up. So, the total the Hawks would use on call-ups during the year would be anywhere between $350K to $500K or so.
I’m going to use Visnevskiy as placeholder for the 5th defenceman. I think he’s closer than Lalonde should no UFA Dman be signed. Also, $821K is close to what a veteran UFA D-man would get. For the last forward spot, it really comes down to Makarov and Beach. Both have high upside. Makarov is probably the better two-way player and comes in with a cheaper cap hit of $553K. He’s probably more mature than Beach as well, having played against men for 2 years now. On the other hand Beach would bring more of a physical element to the Hawks, and if he shows maturity he could be a big-time contributor on a line with Toews and Kane, creating plenty of space for those two to operate. However, he could use some seasoning in the minors to get used to the pro game and has a higher cap hit ($1.17M including bonuses, $845K without bonuses). So in my mind there’s two scenarios here:
1) Beach makes the team:
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Kyle Beach ($1.170m) / Jonathan Toews ($6.300m) / Patrick Kane ($6.300m)
Troy Brouwer ($1.025m) / Patrick Sharp ($3.900m) / Marian Hossa ($5.275m)
Viktor Stalberg ($0.850m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Tomas Kopecky ($1.200m)
Bryan Bickell ($0.541m) / Jake Dowell ($0.525m) / Jack Skille ($0.600m)
DEFENSEMEN
Duncan Keith ($5.538m) / Brent Seabrook ($3.500m)
Brian Campbell ($7.142m) / Niklas Hjalmarsson ($3.500m)
Jordan Hendry ($0.600m) / Ivan Vishnevskiy ($0.821m)
/ John Scott ($0.512m)
GOALTENDERS
Marty Turco ($1.300m) /Corey Crawford ($0.800m)
CARRY-OVER BONUS PENALTY: $4,157,753
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,935,757; BONUSES: $390,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $854,243
If Beach makes the team, he’s best served playing on one of the top 2 lines. Skille and Kopecky could be interchangeable here. So could Beach and Brouwer. This lineup leaves cap space of $854,243. With my call-up assumption of anywhere between $350-500K, this would leave the Hawks with somewhere between $350 to $500K in cap space at the trade deadline to make an addition or two.
This is a pretty solid lineup, assuming that Beach is ready to go and can contribute. I like the Rockford veterans as the 4th line as they’ll have familiarity with each other and have a bit of everything that a 4th line should have. Dowell and Bickell with grit, Skille with good speed.
2) Makarov makes the team ahead of Beach
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Troy Brouwer ($1.025m) / Jonathan Toews ($6.300m) / Patrick Kane ($6.300m)
Viktor Stalberg ($0.850m) / Patrick Sharp ($3.900m) / Marian Hossa ($5.275m)
Tomas Kopecky ($1.200m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Jack Skille ($0.600m)
Bryan Bickell ($0.541m) / Jake Dowell ($0.525m) / Igor Makarov ($0.552m)
DEFENSEMEN
Duncan Keith ($5.538m) / Brent Seabrook ($3.500m)
Brian Campbell ($7.142m) / Niklas Hjalmarsson ($3.500m)
Jordan Hendry ($0.600m) / Ivan Vishnevskiy ($0.821m)
/ John Scott ($0.512m)
GOALTENDERS
Marty Turco ($1.300m) /Corey Crawford ($0.800m)
CARRY-OVER BONUS PENALTY: $4,157,753
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,317,424; BONUSES: $65,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,147,576
Assuming that Makarov is NHL-ready, and this is a big assumption because he’s been playing in Russia and we haven’t seen him much lately, this is the ideal scenario to start the season in my opinion. The Hawks would have $1.15M in cap space. This allows space for not only injury call-ups, but for performance-based call-ups as well. The Hawks could carry a 22 man roster for longer stretches of the season, and if a kid is playing well in Rockford, he’s up with the big club for longer. Or looking at it from the flip side, if there is a player in Chicago that needs to be benched to send a message, the 22nd player stays up for longer as well.
I’ll assume the top end of the range for call-ups of $500K. This would leave the Hawks around $650K in cap space at the deadline. They would then be able to acquire one or more players with a combined cap hit of between $3-3.5M which could be useful for the playoffs.
I’m pretty sure that Beach will be making more than his fair share of appearances in the lineup during the year regardless if he starts on the roster or not. Giving him 40-50 games in Rockford to get used to the pro-game and show some maturity might be best for his development. If he progresses as he should, then bring him up for the last 20-30 games of the year and go from there.
Even if he’s not on the opening night roster, Vishnevskiy is another guy that I can see playing 20-30 games in the NHL at least. He fits the Hawks style and is regarded by some as a future powerplay QB. He has some NHL experience already as well. While early on in the season it might serve Vishnevskiy best to get 20-25 minutes a night in Rockford as opposed to 12-14 minutes on the 3rd pair in Chicago, he’ll probably be up in Chicago in the second half of the year.
So what I’ve proposed is a 21 man roster that will be a 22 man roster for a lot of nights during the season (especially on road trips), kind of like a hybrid between the two. While the Hawks will be younger this year, the youth will not be relied upon to carry the team as the Hawks still possess arguably the best core group of players in the NHL. Instead, the youth will be asked to provide energy, and to support the core by going out on the ice and doing their job. It’s going to be fun to watch who of the young players being given this opportunity can step up and take advantage. Regardless of who steps up, the defending Stanley Cup Champs are still going to be a force to be reckoned with in 2010-11.
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