The Pending Chicago Blackhawks 2010-11 Salary Cap Apocolypse - Part 3

To trade Sharp or not? Very tough question with no easy answer.

Part 1 and 2 are below.

I’ll outline a couple of player decisions at first, put together my base roster and lines, and then discuss the player decisions a little more afterwards.

1) Re-sign Niklas Hjalmarsson and Antii Niemi for around $4M combined. This number may move up or down slightly given playoff performances. That said, I think these 2 are the priorities of the offseason in terms of RFAs.

2) Buy out Cristobal Huet. Again, I’m assuming that the burying in Rockford idea is a no go, and the Hawks weren’t able to trade him. All you’re left with then is the buy out option at $1.875M per season.

3) Bury Brent Sopel in the minors. This may be the point where I use a little magic, but I think that this is a possibility. Some team might take him for a late draft pick with just one year on his contract as well. Bottom line, Sopel cannot be on the roster.

4) Re-sign Andrew Ladd to a 2 year $3.8M contract.

5) Do not re-sign the following: John Madden, Kim Johnsson. As much as I like these players, they just don’t fit in the salary cap.

6) Do no re-sign Ben Eager. He’d have to be qualified at $1M or so as an RFA and that’s just too much for a 4th liner given the cap.

7) I would consider Burish or Fraser for a 13th forward role, but only at the right price. If not, they're not back.

8) Jack Skille, Brian Bickell and Jake Dowell make the team. Also, one of the Hawks D prospects, either Lalonde or Connelly make the squad.

9) Re-sign Jordan Hendry at $0.6M as a number 6 or 7 Dman.

10) Trade Kris Versteeg and Dustin Byfuglien. Traded for what? I’ll discuss that below.

Which brings us to the following base lineup:

Brouwer (1.025M)-Toews (6.3M)-Kane (6.3M)
Sharp (3.9M) - Bolland (3.4M)- Hossa (5.25M)
Ladd (1.9M) - 3rd Line Center- Skille (0.85M)
Bickell (0.525M)- Dowell (0.525M) - Kopecky (1.2M)

Keith (5.54M) – Seabrook (3.5M)
Campbell (7.14M) – Hjalmarsson (2.0M)
Lalonde (0.6M) – Hendry (0.6M)

Niemi (2.0M)
Back-up G (1.0M)

Huet Buyout (1.875M)

Cap hit: 55.4M
Cap: 57.7M
Cap space: 2.3M needing a 3rd line center and either a 13F/7D

A couple points here. So Buff and Versteeg are traded. For each of them I would be looking for near-NHL ready prospects, preferably centers or goaltenders, or draft picks. One player I would target is Andrew Cogliano in Edmonton. I feel he’s under-utilized and won’t be commanding a hefty pay raise next year. He could slot in nicely as the 3rd line center and make around 1-1.3M a season. Or these trades could bring back a young, cheap 5/6 D man. I’ll assume that the Hawks just get prospects though for the rest of this.

I would prefer to have another veteran defenceman to stabilize the 5/6 pairing. Boynton is an option if he’s willing to sign for less than $1M and the Hawks carry Hendry as a 7D. Fraser could be an option to make the team here as well if you’re willing to have Dowell or Fraser as the 3rd line center. I probably would look for other options first, but it is a cost-effective solution.

You’ll also notice a couple other things. First, every hundred thousand bucks the Hawks can save is going to go a long way, whether it be in the Hammer/Niemi contracts or in the backup G contract. Also, just imagine for a second that you don’t have the Huet buyout there, that somehow he miraculously got traded or he was buried on the Rock. Then, that roster has $4.1M in cap space with jut a 3rd line Center, a better 3rd pairing defenceman and a 13th forward, and you’d still have about $1 million left. This is what Stan needs to convince Rocky of on why burying Huet in the minors could be huge. That extra $2M to work with is pretty big. All of a sudden you’re left with this situation:

Brouwer (1.025M)-Toews (6.3M)-Kane (6.3M)
Sharp (3.9M) - Bolland (3.4M)- Hossa (5.25M)
Ladd (1.9M) - 3rd Line Center- Skille (0.85M)
Bickell (0.525M)- Dowell (0.525M) - Kopecky (1.2M)
13F

Keith (5.54M) – Seabrook (3.5M)
Campbell (7.14M) – Hjalmarsson (2.0M)
Lalonde (0.6M) – veteran 5D
Hendry (0.6M)

Niemi (2.0M)
Back-up G (1.0M)

Cap hit: 53.6M
Cap: 57.7M
Cap space: 4.1M needing a 3rd line center, better 5D (possibly acquired in Buff/Versteeg trade) and a 13F if you so choose.

This is workable. You could spend roughly $3M combined on your 3rd line center and veteran 5th Dman and still have about $1M in cap space at the start of the year which would allow you to pick up roughly an additional $4M in cap hit at the trade deadline to improve the team.

You could take this one step further as we also come back to the center problem. Another way for the Hawks to save an extra $1M or so is to trade Sharp for a center and put Beach on the squad. Teams would be lining up for Patrick Sharp so this may be realistic. I’m thinking along the lines of a younger, cheaper center already in the NHL in exchange for Sharp. I’ll just assume for illustration that the Rangers are willing to give up a guy like Dubinsky ($1.85M cap hit) in a deal for him. That may be an ideal scenario, but for argument's sake this brings us to:

Brouwer (1.025M)-Toews (6.3M)-Kane (6.3M)
Beach (1.2M) – Dubinsky (1.85M)- Hossa (5.25M)
Ladd (1.9M) – Bolland (3.4M)- Skille (0.85M)
Bickell (0.525M)- Dowell (0.525M) - Kopecky (1.2M)
13F

Keith (5.54M) – Seabrook (3.5M)
Campbell (7.14M) – Hjalmarsson (2.0M)
Lalonde (0.6M) – veteran 5D
Hendry (0.6M)

Niemi (2.0M)
Back-up G (1.0M)

Cap hit: 52.8M
Cap: 57.7M
Cap space: 4.9M needing a better 5D and a 13F if you so choose.

You could even get by with a Huet buyout in this case and still have $3M left for a defenceman and a 3rd forward.


So there are options. That first option is the base option as outlined, and can be tweaked here and there. There will be hard decisions that have to be made, but that’s the reality of the situation.

I personally prefer the second option as I value Patrick Sharp on this team and I’m of the opinion that Rocky is making a lot of money on this squad right now and that he should pony some of that cash up by burying Huet in order to help keep this squad contending for the Stanley Cup. Especially when ticket prices are rising by as much as I’m hearing they are. Sometimes you do have to clean up the messes made by your employees (Tallon) in order to make sure the entire company doesn’t pay the price for longer than it has to. This applies in this situation. So as a Hawks fan I’m asking you Rocky, please take that money that has come out of our pockets as fans in order to make sure this team stays a contender for the Stanley Cup. It can be done and really it falls to you Rocky.

The Pending Chicago Blackhawks 2010-11 Salary Cap Apocolypse - Part 2

Will he be back next year?

Part 1 is below. To continue...


So the Hawks have serious salary cap problems and it’s the end of the world, the sky is falling, etc…

It’s not completely doom and gloom though. A lot of teams wish they would have a core of Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith and Seabrook locked up. Still, it takes more than 5 guys in hockey to be an elite team, and that’s what Hawks fans want. At least the team is being marketed as an elite team before they’ve won anything, but that’s another rant for another day.

Were there mistakes made by Tallon and management? Fuck yes. Are there ways to fix it? Yes, and management can go a long way into solving some of these problems. How willing they will be to potentially eat $11-14 million in contracts remains to be seen. If Rocky is truly serious about wanting a winner, he’s going to have to consider this option and probably act on it.

So what’s the plan? The following needs to be considered:

1) The Hawks’ most near NHL-ready prospects are on the wing. Prospects are another way of saying cheap, serviceable players with the potential to outplay their cap number.

2) The Hawks are going to need either a 2C or a 3C, depending on how you characterize Bolland. This will have to come either via a trade of the “secondary core 7” or via free agency.

3) The Hawks can’t afford to ice a deep group of forwards and a pretty good D-core without saving money in net.

4) It will be very difficult to find a taker for Huet or Sopel via trade. I’m not saying it’s impossible as who knows, maybe there is a Mike MIlbury out there. Any trade involving these two is going to require some serious sweetener for the other side (hello Patrick Sharp, Kris Versteeg or Dustin Byfuglien). Is it worth it to give up one of those 3 just to get rid of Huet? Depends on the deal I’d say.

5) Saving a couple hundred thousand here, and a couple hundred thousand there is going to go a long way to keep the Hawks together. Stan Bowman has to negotiate with all free agents by using the “anti-Tallon doctorine”, ie, not overpaying guys. This consideration will also manifest itself on the bottom 6 forwards and bottom 2 defencemen as you are more likely to see young, cheap prospects there as opposed to some of the pending RFAs who currently fill those positions.

6) It would be nice to have more than $200K in cap room when it’s all said and done. It would allow for flexibility and the ability to add an impact player or two at the trade deadline next year.

I’m going to assume a couple of things here as well:

1) The salary cap, based on what Glenn Healy said on the Hockey Night in Canada hotstove a couple weeks ago is going to be $57.7 million for the 2010-11 season.

2) That Rocky is not going to be open to burying the $11M remaining on Cristobal Huet’s contract in the minors. This is the magic card that makes this a lot easier, but I’m going to assume there are no magic acts for the purpose of coming up with my base roster. I will illustrate however on how burying Huet and saving the extra $2M could go a very long way in making this team better.

3) That said, Rocky will be a little more open to burying the $2 million actual ($2.3M cap hit) on Sopel’s contract.

4) That Stan is actually able to negotiate and not grossly overpay the free agents that are signed. This may be a big reach, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

5) I’d like to trade Kopecky and replace him with a player making $500K less, but fact is he’s probably not going anywhere as he's Hossa' BFF.

6) That despite having leverage over the Hawks knowing the Hawks have to cut salary, there are going to be a number of GMs interested in any of the “secondary core 7” that are available on the trade market. This fact will lead to competition between GMs to get their hands on any of these players and give the Hawks a chance to get a pretty decent return for any of them.

7) Lastly I’ll assume that nobody out there is trading for Cristobal Huet. Either that, or the Hawks think the “sweetener” route to getting rid of him is too expensive in terms of giving up a good player for nothing.

Given all that, Part 3 will outline how the Hawks ice a very good hockey team next year despite the cap issues.

The Pending Chicago Blackhawks 2010-11 Salary Cap Apocolypse - Part 1

I realize that the goal for this blog was to write about college basketball during the season but unfortunately life and work got in the way of that plan. That said, I’ll try to update this more often.

With the calendar turning to April it’s time for the NHL playoffs. While there are a number of issues that the current Blackhawks team has going into the playoffs, the team has clinched a top 2 seed. What I think of this Hawks squad’s chances in the playoffs will depend a little bit on the matchups. So I’ll wait til next week to work on that.

Instead, I’m going to focus on the upcoming salary cap apocalypse the Hawks are going to face in the 2010-11 offseason and what I would do if I were Stan Bowman. Obviously there are players that are not going to be back in Chicago based on the salary cap constraints. Part 1 of this analysis deals with the lay of the land. Part 2 will outline my considerations and assumptions. Part 3 will outline my plan for next year’s roster as of April 9, 2010 recognizing that a lot can change in the next couple months. With that, let’s categorize the players in the Chicago organization shall we?

(2010-11 cap hit)

Group A: The core: Jonathan Toews ($6.3M), Patrick Kane ($6.3M), Marian Hossa ($5.25M), Duncan Keith ($5.54M), Brent Seabrook ($3.5M)

Group B: The players with contracts that mean they will very likely be here next year either because their contract is tough to trade or provide great value: Brian Campbell ($7.14M), Troy Brouwer ($1.03M)

Group C: The players the Hawks want to get rid of at all costs, buy out, trade, bury in the minors, whatever: Cristobal Huet ($5.625M), Brent Sopel ($2.33M)

Group D: The secondary core: Patrick Sharp ($3.9M), Dave Bolland ($3.38M), Kris Versteeg ($3.08M), Dustin Byfuglien ($3.0M),

Group E: The key RFAs who are Group D: Antii Niemi (RFA), Andrew Ladd (RFA), Niklas Hjalmarsson (RFA)

Group F: The replaceables: Tomas Kopescky ($1.2M), Adam Burish (UFA), Colin Fraser (RFA), John Madden (UFA), Ben Eager (RFA), Jordan Hendry (RFA), Nick Boynton (UFA), Kim Johnsson (UFA)

Group G: The prospects (anticipated 10-11 cap hit): Jack Skille ($0.85M), Kyle Beach ($1.2M), Brian Bickell ($0.53M), Jake Dowell ($0.53M), Corey Crawford ($0.85M), Brian Connolly ($0.85M), Shaun Lalonde ($0.6M), Brandon Bollig ($0.54M)

The key for the Hawks this offseason is what happens with the deadweight players, or Group C. If the Hawks can get rid of Huet and Sopel, the rest can fall into place without much detriment to the roster. Easier said than done however.

Where the Hawks are going to lose significant pieces this offseason is in Group D or E. No matter how you slice it, most likely 2 of those players are going to be gone. The Family Bowman is going to have to prioritize which of those 7 players are the most important to the Hawks future factoring in skill level, age, position and cap hit. How would I do this?

1) Niklas Hjalmarsson – To me, “Hammer” is the most important RFA to sign. The Hawks do have good depth in the system on the blue line with Shawn Lalonde, Dylan Olsen and Nick Leddy in the system. But I believe that Hjalmarsson can be a very, very good top 4 defenceman in this league, perhaps even top 2 some day. He’s reliable and getting better every day. In his first 2 years of the league, much of his time has been spent covering for Brian Campbell. The kid is top priority in my book.

2) Antii Niemi – No matter how you crunch the numbers, the Hawks for the next year or two really can’t afford a lot of money tied up in net. The playoffs will be the true litmis test for Niemi, but at the very worst he has shown he’s an above average NHL backup bordering on being a good NHL starter. At age 26, he can still get better. His athleticism is something that can’t be taught.

3) Patrick Sharp – There is no discounting Patrick Sharp’s value to this team. His versatility to play center in a pinch is also important. He’s normally a dependable two-way player and can play on either of the top 2 lines. However, he may also be the most valuable trading chip of these 7 players, which is something to be considered. If it’s possible to trade Sharp for a pretty good number 2 C and save money at the same time, you have to consider it.

4) Andrew Ladd – To me, Ladd is one of the more underrated players on this team. He just goes about doing his job quietly but it is a very important job. Ladd is arguably the Hawks’ second best defensive winger behind Hossa. I believe if playing with Toews and Kane for 82 games he could pot 30 goals, but his value to this current roster is on the checking line.

5) David Bolland – I’ll come out and say that Bolland’s back issues worry me greatly. He hasn’t had a great season by any stretch. That said, if you remember back to last year he was one of the Hawks’ more clutch performers and played in a number of situations. The Hawks do have a lot of forward depth in the system, but not so much at center. Because of this, trading Bolland would only make sense if the Hawks got another center in return. Here’s hoping he’s fully healthy next year.

6) Dustin Byfuglien – You can’t teach what Buff has, and that’s size. Also, he’s a versatile player being able to fill in on the blue-line as the team has struggled with injuries to Brian Campbell and Kim Johnsson. In fact, I think he should be put back on D permanently but I doubt that’s going to happen. The problem with Buff is his motor. You see max effort from the guy once every 8-10 games it seems. For that reason, he’s down on this list.

7) Kris Versteeg – There is no doubt that Versteeg can be a very good player in this league and his puckhandling skills are a sight to behold at times. At age 24, he still has a lot of room to improve. That said, given the Hawks forwards both on the NHL team and in the system, he’s the most replaceable forward. Some team will get Versteeg for a discount and be very happy.

I reserve the right to adjust the order of this list after the playoffs are done.

It’s a reality that one or more players on that list of 7 will not be with the Blackhawks next year. It would be great if there was no salary cap so the Hawks could keep this core and secondary core together for a long time. It would also be great if either a) certain players were never signed in the first place and/or b) players were not over-paid on RFA contracts. If any of those were true, the Hawks would not be in this mess to the degree they are. But they are and there’s no use crying over spilt milk.

What do the Hawks do?