Wednesday, July 14, 2010

From Russia with Love? Some minor moves made in the last 24 Hours


(c) DailyMe
Brian Bickell isn't Russian, but he'll be in the Opening Night lineup



I know that I said I was going to hold out on projecting a lineup until we found out the result of the Niemi arbitration and a couple of the other minor signings. In the last day or two there has been a minor move and some news that has caught my attention.

First, Andy Strickland reports that the Hawks are closing in on a deal with Brian Bickell. This makes sense on a lot of levels, as Bickell has been serviceable everytime the Hawks have called him up including a couple of games in the Nashville series. He has skated with Toews and Kane before, but for next year’s team I see him on the 4th line with Jake Dowell. I do not foresee a high cap number for Bickell.

To go off on a tangent here, with the Hawks having the following combination: a) cap problems, b) a lot of job openings and c) a lot of prospects, some of these prospects are realizing that if they take slightly less money this year, it might improve their chances of making the NHL.

Following this logic, the Blackhawks made a very interesting signing either late last night or early today. The Blackhawks agreed to terms with 2006 second round selection Igor Makarov on a 2 year deal worth $552,500 per year. The contract has an European escape clause as well, which would most likely indicate if Makarov doesn’t make the Hawks he’d head back to Russia for a year.

It’s been a while since most Hawks fans have seen Makarov, as he’s spent the last couple of years in the KHL. He’s played on 3rd and 4th lines on his team as he was buried behind older, more experienced players. Whether or not this has stunted his development is unknown. Most Hawk fans (on message boards this writer frequents) who saw Makarov at earlier prospect camps came away very impressed and to some he looked like “a man amongst boys”. Keep in mind these were prospect camps that former Blackhawks such as Kris Versteeg attended.

For a better talent analysis on what Makarov brings to the table, Hockeys Future has a breakdown here.

What does this all mean? I think Makarov is going to have every chance to make the Hawks next year. He’s ahead of most Hawk prospects in the fact that he’s already spent a couple years playing against men 10 years older than him. From all accounts, he’s not like most Russian players and can play a 2 way game, is gritty, has good hands and can provide a little offence. Sound like someone who played on the third line last year who now plays for Toronto? I am by no means saying that Makarov will replace Versteeg because that would be crazy, but let’s just say I would not be surprised to see him slotted on that 3rd line come October. Plus there’s the great $553K cap hit that improves his chances even more.

Without getting into a detailed number crunch, assuming a cap number of close to $2.75M for Niemi from the arbitrator, and Makarov being able to contribute, this lineup would be very close to the cap (thanks to Hawkscap.com for a number breakdown and a base for which to work with):

Brouwer ($1.03M)-Toews ($6.3M)-Kane ($6.3M)
Stalberg ($0.85M)-Sharp ($3.9M)-Hossa ($5.28M)
Kopecky ($1.2M)-Bolland($3.38M)-Makarov ($0.53M)
Bickell ($0.6M*)- Reasoner ($1.15M)-Dowell ($0.53M)

Keith ($5.54M) – Seabrook ($3.5M)
Campbell ($7.14M) – Hjalmarsson ($3.5M)
D5 ($0.8M) – UFA Veteran D6 ($0.8M)
Scott ($0.51M)

Niemi ($2.75M)
Toivenen ($0.55M)

Forwards total: $31.0M
Defencemen total: $21.8M
Goaltenders total: $3.3M

Hawks Cap after $4.2M bonus penalty: $55.2M
Total of this lineup: $56.1M

D5 will be one of Lalonde or Visnevskiy.

This lineup is close, and works under the cap if Reasoner is waived, or if the Hawks decide to go with 20 players as opposed to 21 players (Scott moves up to the 4th line in this scenario). Money can also be saved on the UFA veteran D6 is signed for less than $0.8M.

So there’s a rough guess of the lineup as of July 14th, 2010. We continue to wait for other dominos to fall.

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