Will Buff be back?
Parts 1 thru 3 below. Part 5 above.
What would I do if I was the Hawks GM? Allow me first to say that I’m sure the job isn’t easy and trades are always a moving target. In other words, it takes 2 to make a deal. However, I do believe that a lot of teams would be interested in the Hawks players.
In any trade, the Hawks will have to take back prospects or draft picks.
Here’s what I do.
1) Trade Kris Versteeg for picks or prospects. At $3M, Steeger has to be the first to go. This gives the Hawks a little breathing room to qualify RFAs here in the next couple of days. I know that Florida has 5 picks in the top 50 of the 2010 draft. There’s a good chance Versteeg is traded to Florida, the Islanders or Carolina here in the next couple of days.
2) Trade Andrew Ladd for picks or prospects – Not that I want to, but Ladd has to go because of the whole rule that states a team can only be 7.5% over the cap during the offseason. Because they can’t put Huet in the minors until September, if the Hawks want to resign Hammer and Niemi, they have to make deals before July 1st. The Hawks can’t afford to pay him $2-2.5M a season. Some team will trade for him and get a very solid player
3) Re-sign Hjalmarsson. An interesting idea was brought up that you offer Hammer a 2 year deal paying him $1.5M this year and then $3M in the second year. This works out to a $2.25M cap hit and allows him to be qualified for $3M in 2012 when he’s still RFA.
4)Re-sign Niemi. I’d offer Niemi around $2.5-$2.75M. If you’re worried about cap hit, give him less money but only a 1 year deal so he’s a UFA next year (benefit to the player). If he wants a longer term deal and is willing to sign for somewhere in that range, great. I’ll assume he does. But the Hawks can’t break the bank. If he wants more money, sign a UFA netminder for this year at $2M or so.
5)4th liners. If Burish and Fraser want to accept pay cuts or settle for $700K or so a year, I’d consider bringing them back on the 4th line. Otherwise, those spots are going to be filled by cheaper replacements. For this first scenario, I’m going to assume it’s the cheaper replacements. I’ll also assume Jordan Hendry wants to come back and will take his qualifying offer of $675K.
That brings us to the following lineup:
Buff ($3M)-Toews ($6.3M)-Kane ($6.3M)
Kopecky ($1.2M) – Sharp ($3.9M)- Hossa ($5.25M)
Brouwer ($1.03M) – Bolland ($3.38M)-Skille ($0.9M)
Bickell ($0.53M)-Dowell ($0.53M)- 4th liner ($0.5M)
Forwards: $32.8M
Keith ($5.54M)-Seabrook ($3.5M)
Campbell ($7.14M)-Hjalmarsson ($2.25M)
Lalonde ($0.8M)-Hendry ($0.68M)
Defence: $19.8M
Niemi ($2.75M)
Crawford ($0.8M)
Goalies: $3.6M
Cap of $56M, total of the lineup is $56.2M, $200K over.
So this lineup is over by $300,000. The Hawks still wouldn’t have a 13th F or 7th defenceman. A couple things to consider. First, if you get Hammer and Niemi for less than $5M, this lineup could actually work. Hawks management could also make the decision that if NIemi wants too much, you go sign a cheaper UFA goalie like Martin Biron for about $1M less and this works as well.
Also, the bonus cushion is still in effect next year, and Lalonde has about $200K in bonus (i.e. his salary is $0.6M) and if he doesn’t make the bonus it doesn’t count towards the final cap number. This bonus cushion also increases Kyle Beach’s chance to make the team as he has $325K in bonuses. In this scenario he doesn’t but in the next scenario he does.
Another thing that could work in the Hawks favor is the cap for them is slightly higher than this and this 20 man roster (which is all you need on opening night) is under the cap.
So this lineup is close. However, accounting for the fact that you’d probably want to carry a 21st player (either a 13th forward or 7th Dman), and the possibility the cap is a little lower than $56M you’re left with…
6)Trade Dustin Byfuglien for picks and prospects. There’s pros and cons to this obviously. It could be a great sell high point on Buff. But maybe he’s finally turned the light on, and playing with Toews and Kane he could become an elite power forward. Plus he’s versatile and can play D in a pinch if needed. He provides value to this team. I don’t want to see him traded. However, such is the mess the Hawks are in. So assuming Buff is dealt, we’re left with the following.
Beach ($1.2M)-Toews ($6.3M)-Kane ($6.3M)
Kopecky ($1.2M) – Sharp ($3.9M)- Hossa ($5.25M)
Brouwer ($1.03M) – Bolland ($3.38M)-Skille ($0.9M)
Bickell ($0.53M)-Fraser ($0.75M)- Burish ($0.75M)
Dowell (0.53M)
Forwards: $32.0M
Keith ($5.54M)-Seabrook ($3.5M)
Campbell ($7.14M)-Hjalmarsson ($2.25M)
Lalonde ($0.8M)-Hendry ($0.68M)
Defence: $19.8M
Niemi ($2.75M)
Crawford ($0.8M)
Goalies: $3.6M
Cap of $56M, Cap total of $55.5M, cap space of $500K to use for call-ups during season, or to find a slightly better 6th Dman than Hendry, or to use as a buffer incase Hammer and Niemi want slightly more.
This scenario fits under the cap. It’s still a pretty good team, but not the same as having Buff in the lineup. Plus you have a little more bonus cushion room with Beach and Lalonde in the lineup.
Obviously every $100K saved here and there is going to help. If Stan Bowman can get Niemi and Hjalmarsson to sign cap-friendlier contracts, chances of keeping Buff increase. If Niemi wants too much Stan may decide that Buff + Hammer + UFA goalie is better for the team than Niemi + Hammer + Beach. They are not easy decisions to say the least.
One other card the Hawks could play with guys like Skille, Burish and Fraser is to offer one-way contracts (can’t be sent to Rockford unless they clear waivers) so they sign for less money. This will have more value to Skille as it gives him a shot in the NHL. Maybe by doing so you get Skille on a 1 year, $700K contract and save a couple hundred thousand that way as well. Like I said, Stan has to get creative.
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