Part 2 - Way Too Early Lineup Projection – August 6, 2010

(c) Dave Sandford - Getty Images
Kyle Beach finds himself on the bubble this season

Part 1 outlines the rationale with coming to these projections.

These players are locked into the roster for opening night (assuming if you believe what Bowman has said about Crawford getting his chance this year).Those italicized are most likely on the team barring them crapping the bed in training camp:

Goalies (2): Marty Turco, Corey Crawford

Defencemen (5): Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brian Campbell, Jordan Hendry

Forwards (11): Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, David Bolland, Troy Brouwer, Tomas Kopecky, Brian Bickell, Jake Dowell, Viktor Stalberg, Jack Skille

21st man/nuclear weapon with his fists for when the Hawks play St. Louis (13F or 7D): John Scott

This brings us to a total of 2, maybe 3 spots up for grabs. The last defenceman spot will either be a veteran UFA or one of Ivan Vishnevsky or Shawn Lalonde. There is a forward spot available, and this will likely come down to Kyle Beach, Igor Makarov and Jeff Taffe. There may be a UFA in there like a Tim Kennedy, but that remains to be seen. Lastly, Hannu Toivenen will battle Corey Crawford for the backup goaltender spot, with Crawford having the inside track.

During the year, the Hawks will have injury call ups or carry a 22nd player. As seen in the first section, the daily cap hit of the players on the Rockford Express is between $2,600-$4,400 per day. For the purpose of this projection, I’ll assume $3,500 per day, and that 100 days the Hawks have a 22nd player up. So, the total the Hawks would use on call-ups during the year would be anywhere between $350K to $500K or so.

I’m going to use Visnevskiy as placeholder for the 5th defenceman. I think he’s closer than Lalonde should no UFA Dman be signed. Also, $821K is close to what a veteran UFA D-man would get. For the last forward spot, it really comes down to Makarov and Beach. Both have high upside. Makarov is probably the better two-way player and comes in with a cheaper cap hit of $553K. He’s probably more mature than Beach as well, having played against men for 2 years now. On the other hand Beach would bring more of a physical element to the Hawks, and if he shows maturity he could be a big-time contributor on a line with Toews and Kane, creating plenty of space for those two to operate. However, he could use some seasoning in the minors to get used to the pro game and has a higher cap hit ($1.17M including bonuses, $845K without bonuses). So in my mind there’s two scenarios here:

1) Beach makes the team:
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Kyle Beach ($1.170m) / Jonathan Toews ($6.300m) / Patrick Kane ($6.300m)
Troy Brouwer ($1.025m) / Patrick Sharp ($3.900m) / Marian Hossa ($5.275m)
Viktor Stalberg ($0.850m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Tomas Kopecky ($1.200m)
Bryan Bickell ($0.541m) / Jake Dowell ($0.525m) / Jack Skille ($0.600m)

DEFENSEMEN
Duncan Keith ($5.538m) / Brent Seabrook ($3.500m)
Brian Campbell ($7.142m) / Niklas Hjalmarsson ($3.500m)
Jordan Hendry ($0.600m) / Ivan Vishnevskiy ($0.821m)
/ John Scott ($0.512m)

GOALTENDERS
Marty Turco ($1.300m) /Corey Crawford ($0.800m)

CARRY-OVER BONUS PENALTY: $4,157,753

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,935,757; BONUSES: $390,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $854,243

If Beach makes the team, he’s best served playing on one of the top 2 lines. Skille and Kopecky could be interchangeable here. So could Beach and Brouwer. This lineup leaves cap space of $854,243. With my call-up assumption of anywhere between $350-500K, this would leave the Hawks with somewhere between $350 to $500K in cap space at the trade deadline to make an addition or two.

This is a pretty solid lineup, assuming that Beach is ready to go and can contribute. I like the Rockford veterans as the 4th line as they’ll have familiarity with each other and have a bit of everything that a 4th line should have. Dowell and Bickell with grit, Skille with good speed.

2) Makarov makes the team ahead of Beach
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Troy Brouwer ($1.025m) / Jonathan Toews ($6.300m) / Patrick Kane ($6.300m)
Viktor Stalberg ($0.850m) / Patrick Sharp ($3.900m) / Marian Hossa ($5.275m)
Tomas Kopecky ($1.200m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Jack Skille ($0.600m)
Bryan Bickell ($0.541m) / Jake Dowell ($0.525m) / Igor Makarov ($0.552m)

DEFENSEMEN
Duncan Keith ($5.538m) / Brent Seabrook ($3.500m)
Brian Campbell ($7.142m) / Niklas Hjalmarsson ($3.500m)
Jordan Hendry ($0.600m) / Ivan Vishnevskiy ($0.821m)
/ John Scott ($0.512m)


GOALTENDERS
Marty Turco ($1.300m) /Corey Crawford ($0.800m)

CARRY-OVER BONUS PENALTY: $4,157,753

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,317,424; BONUSES: $65,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,147,576

Assuming that Makarov is NHL-ready, and this is a big assumption because he’s been playing in Russia and we haven’t seen him much lately, this is the ideal scenario to start the season in my opinion. The Hawks would have $1.15M in cap space. This allows space for not only injury call-ups, but for performance-based call-ups as well. The Hawks could carry a 22 man roster for longer stretches of the season, and if a kid is playing well in Rockford, he’s up with the big club for longer. Or looking at it from the flip side, if there is a player in Chicago that needs to be benched to send a message, the 22nd player stays up for longer as well.

I’ll assume the top end of the range for call-ups of $500K. This would leave the Hawks around $650K in cap space at the deadline. They would then be able to acquire one or more players with a combined cap hit of between $3-3.5M which could be useful for the playoffs.

I’m pretty sure that Beach will be making more than his fair share of appearances in the lineup during the year regardless if he starts on the roster or not. Giving him 40-50 games in Rockford to get used to the pro-game and show some maturity might be best for his development. If he progresses as he should, then bring him up for the last 20-30 games of the year and go from there.

Even if he’s not on the opening night roster, Vishnevskiy is another guy that I can see playing 20-30 games in the NHL at least. He fits the Hawks style and is regarded by some as a future powerplay QB. He has some NHL experience already as well. While early on in the season it might serve Vishnevskiy best to get 20-25 minutes a night in Rockford as opposed to 12-14 minutes on the 3rd pair in Chicago, he’ll probably be up in Chicago in the second half of the year.

So what I’ve proposed is a 21 man roster that will be a 22 man roster for a lot of nights during the season (especially on road trips), kind of like a hybrid between the two. While the Hawks will be younger this year, the youth will not be relied upon to carry the team as the Hawks still possess arguably the best core group of players in the NHL. Instead, the youth will be asked to provide energy, and to support the core by going out on the ice and doing their job. It’s going to be fun to watch who of the young players being given this opportunity can step up and take advantage. Regardless of who steps up, the defending Stanley Cup Champs are still going to be a force to be reckoned with in 2010-11.

Part 1 - Way Too Early Lineup Projection – August 6, 2010

(c) Associated Press
Jordan Hendry is officially back in the fold for 2010-11

It’s summer which means it’s time to BBQ, get outside and enjoy seeing girls with less clothing on than you would in winter. However, August is also the dog days of the sports season unless you’re into baseball, and generally that’s not the case for me until late September. So for us hockey junkies, our minds keep thinking ahead to October and the start of the 2010-11 NHL season. Well, that, and continuing to celebrate the Stanley Cup win if you’re a Hawks fan.

In minor, expected news, the Blackhawks have re-signed Jordan Hendry to a 1 year, $600K contract, per capgeek.com. Hendry has been with the Hawks for a couple of years now and is your average NHL 6th or 7th defenceman. Which is pretty much where he’s going to slot for the Hawks in this coming year.

With that signing, the pieces are pretty much in place when it comes to projecting the 2010-11 Chicago Blackhawks roster. There’s still a couple of spots up from grabs, and there may still be one or two depth signings by Stan Bowman. These depth signings would most likely be a 3rd pairing defenceman who can kill penalties and has some sandpaper to him, and possibly a veteran defensive minded forward. If Bowman only signs one player, the priority should be a 5th defenceman who fits that description above. Some possibilities are Mike Mottau, Jay McKee or Shane Hnidy.

After the signing of Marty Turco for the bargain price of $1.3M, the Hawks have some flexibility in how they handle the 2010-11 season from a cap standpoint. They can choose to use the extra cap space now to fill out the roster before the season starts. Or they could save some of the cap space for the trade deadline.

Regarding the trade deadline, here’s the quick math. Assuming a trade deadline of Wednesday, March 2nd, if a team were to trade for a player on the deadline, they’d only have to pay him for 40 days the rest of the year. There are 193 days (or so) in the NHL season. In other words, you’d only be paying for roughly 20% of the player’s contract that you pick up. What does this mean in terms of cap space? In essence, every $100K in cap space you have at the deadline is worth $500K in annual cap hit for the player. For example, say you want to pick up Andrew Ladd at the deadline (we can only dream). His cap hit is $2.35M. If you traded for Ladd at the deadline, you’d only need $500K in cap space at the deadline to acquire him and fit under the cap.

I’m of the opinion that the Hawks should try to save as much cap space for the trade deadline as possible. While the Hawks could use another defensive minded, veteran forward, why pay this forward $1.5M for the entire year? Give the kids a chance early on, and make a trade at the deadline if you need to. That way you’re only paying $300K on your cap for this veteran. The Hawks have a plethora of picks and prospects they can deal if need be.

Another debate will be whether or not the Hawks carry a 21 or 22 man roster. I’m of the opinion that you go with 21 for the most part. Why? A couple of reasons. The Hawks have a geographical advantage when it comes to their farm team being located 2 hours away in Rockford. If a player is needed for a game or two, the Hawks can call him up the day of the game, especially when they are at home. This way the Hawks only pay the daily cap hit when they use these players. From Hawkscap.com, the daily cap hits of some players who may be needing a lot of money on their I-Pass while they do the “Rockford Shuffle” are:

•Kyle Beach ($1.17M cap hit, $845K after taking out bonuses): $4,400 per day ($6,066 with bonuses included);
•Ivan Vishnevskiy ($821K cap hit): $4,257 per day;
•Shaun Lalonde ($773K cap hit, $573K after taking out bonuses): $2,867 per day ($4,007 with bonuses included);
•Igor Makarov ($553K cap hit): $2,863 per day;
•Jeff Taffe ($550K cap hit): $2,849 per day;
•Any player with a $500K cap hit (Hugh Jessiman, Rob Klinkhammer, etc): $2,590 per day.

So you’re looking at roughly between $2,600-$4,400 per day each time you call up a player from Rockford. Why have a player to sit in the press box and have his $500K off the cap when instead you maybe use this player for half the time? You save $250K on your cap by using the Rockford Express.

Another reason to roll with 21 is because a lot of these players mentioned are still young and developing as players. Examples of these players are Beach, Lalonde and Vishnevskiy. They would be better served playing 20 minutes a night every night instead of sitting and watching in the press box.

Lastly on this point, looking at the Hawks schedule there’s a few sections that stand out. They are:

•November 17th to November 27th (6 game road trip over 11 days)
•February 1st to February 12th (6 game road trip over 12 days)
•March 5th to March 13th (4 game east coast road trip over 8 days)
•Between January 15th and January 31st the Hawks only play 5 games.

For these road trips, it probably would be wise to carry a 22nd man as you’re not close to Rockford. But instead of carrying this 22nd man for 193 days, you carry him for 31 days leading to cap savings. Conversely, for that time the Hawks only play 5 games in 16 days, there’s no need to have 22 on the roster.

Part 2 will outline the roster projection as of August 6, 2010.

Adios Antti

(c) Canadian Press
Say hello to your new goaltender Hawks fans...

About a year ago at this time, the Chicago Blackhawks were heading into the 2009-10 season ready to go to war with Cristobal Huet as their starting netminder. In training camp, a young Finnish goaltender named Antti Niemi beat out Corey Crawford for the backup job. Nobody at the time saw this as some huge development because nobody really knew exactly much about this 26 year old from Finland.

Fast forward to June 9, 2010. The Chicago Blackhawks are hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup. In the course of a year, Niemi was solid during his regular season starts, Huet imploded; Niemi took over the starting job, had a very solid playoffs and despite still looking baby-faced with a playoff beard, was going to go down in Blackhawks history as the goaltender on the team that ended 49 years of misery for Hawks fans.

What a difference a year makes. Or what a difference a month makes. From the euphoria of that Stanley Cup win has come a pretty gut-wrenching offseason for Hawks fans. Due to the salary cap constraints this team faced, a lot of fan-favorites and key role players in the Stanley Cup run are now wearing different jerseys. A lot of us knew this was coming. But knowing what was going to happen hasn’t made it any easier for us. Despite the solid returns the Hawks got back in the trades, it has been tough to see half of the Stanley Cup roster gone.

Niemi was a RFA and the Hawks tried to get him signed. However, negotiations seemed to go nowhere and Niemi’s agent Bill Zito elected to take the Hawks to arbitration. Over the weekend the arbitrator awarded Niemi a 1 year $2.75M contract. The Hawks had 48 hours to decide on whether to accept the decision and keep Niemi, accept the decision and trade Niemi, or to walk away and make Niemi an unrestricted free agent.

In the end, the Hawks chose to walk away from the arbitrator’s decision thus ending the Antti Niemi era in Chicago. The reason being that if they chose to accept the decision it would mean rolling with a 20 or 21 man roster for the 2010-11 season with little cap room to account for injuries and call-ups. Either that, or you’re looking at dealing Patrick Sharp or David Bolland. Add in the fact that the Hawks would go through this same song and dance next year with Niemi when he’s a UFA and would probably want more than $2.75M and you can see why the Hawks decided what they did.

It is tough to see a goaltender who helped the Hawks win the Stanley Cup go, especially when this goaltender still has some potential to get better and has shown he can handle the pressure of the playoffs. Hawks fans have every right to be upset and if they decided to blame any of: Tallon’s overpayments putting the Hawks in this position, Campbell and his contract, the fact the Hawks get punished for Toews winning the Conn Smythe and $4.2M in bonuses carrying over to this year, Bowman Jr. not being able to sign Hjalmarsson before the San Jose offer sheet, Bill Zito being unreasonable (especially if the rumored $8M over 3 year offer was extended by the Hawks) or any other reason, each reason would have it’s merit. But such is life. It’s obvious that Antti valued every last hundred thousand dollars over staying in Chicago, and I can understand this considering the guy was driving a zamboni in Finland a few years ago for a few extra bucks. I wish him the best, and hopefully he ends up in the Eastern Conference.

The Hawks had a pretty good plan B in my opinion, and that’s Marty Turco coming in at $1.3M for one year. While I’m of the opinion that if I had one game to win tomorrow, I’m going with Niemi over Turco any day of the week, Turco is not a slouch. There has been some drop-off in Turco’s play as of late, but some of that can be attributed to playing on Dallas team that was pretty bad defensively these last few years. Turco still posted solid save % numbers last year. In addition, he will bring an added element to the Hawks’ transition game as he’s one of the best puckhandling goaltenders in the game today.

Turco accepted less money to play in Chicago to go for a championship. At 34, he wants to prove he has something left in the tank so he can get one more pay-day before he retires. To say he’s going to be motivated and have a chip on his shoulder to prove his doubters wrong would probably be an understatement. Hopefully he’s able to take advantage of this opportunity in front of him.

With this move, the Hawks give themselves $1.45M in cap room this year to finish filling out the roster. This is significant as it actually allows for competition in training camp (i.e. making sure that the Hawks have the flexibility to take the guy making $850K instead of $600K if the player making more plays better), and allows the Hawks some money to go after a veteran 3rd pairing defenceman. Also, it allows the Hawks some cushion to account for injuries and call ups during the season as opposed to having maybe $200K while rolling with a 20 man roster. Lastly, the Hawks can save some cap space for the trade deadline and make an addition or two for the playoff run.

The next entry will look at the big picture and try to project the roster for next year.