I realize that the goal for this blog was to write about college basketball during the season but unfortunately life and work got in the way of that plan. That said, I’ll try to update this more often.
With the calendar turning to April it’s time for the NHL playoffs. While there are a number of issues that the current Blackhawks team has going into the playoffs, the team has clinched a top 2 seed. What I think of this Hawks squad’s chances in the playoffs will depend a little bit on the matchups. So I’ll wait til next week to work on that.
Instead, I’m going to focus on the upcoming salary cap apocalypse the Hawks are going to face in the 2010-11 offseason and what I would do if I were Stan Bowman. Obviously there are players that are not going to be back in Chicago based on the salary cap constraints. Part 1 of this analysis deals with the lay of the land. Part 2 will outline my considerations and assumptions. Part 3 will outline my plan for next year’s roster as of April 9, 2010 recognizing that a lot can change in the next couple months. With that, let’s categorize the players in the Chicago organization shall we?
(2010-11 cap hit)
Group A: The core: Jonathan Toews ($6.3M), Patrick Kane ($6.3M), Marian Hossa ($5.25M), Duncan Keith ($5.54M), Brent Seabrook ($3.5M)
Group B: The players with contracts that mean they will very likely be here next year either because their contract is tough to trade or provide great value: Brian Campbell ($7.14M), Troy Brouwer ($1.03M)
Group C: The players the Hawks want to get rid of at all costs, buy out, trade, bury in the minors, whatever: Cristobal Huet ($5.625M), Brent Sopel ($2.33M)
Group D: The secondary core: Patrick Sharp ($3.9M), Dave Bolland ($3.38M), Kris Versteeg ($3.08M), Dustin Byfuglien ($3.0M),
Group E: The key RFAs who are Group D: Antii Niemi (RFA), Andrew Ladd (RFA), Niklas Hjalmarsson (RFA)
Group F: The replaceables: Tomas Kopescky ($1.2M), Adam Burish (UFA), Colin Fraser (RFA), John Madden (UFA), Ben Eager (RFA), Jordan Hendry (RFA), Nick Boynton (UFA), Kim Johnsson (UFA)
Group G: The prospects (anticipated 10-11 cap hit): Jack Skille ($0.85M), Kyle Beach ($1.2M), Brian Bickell ($0.53M), Jake Dowell ($0.53M), Corey Crawford ($0.85M), Brian Connolly ($0.85M), Shaun Lalonde ($0.6M), Brandon Bollig ($0.54M)
The key for the Hawks this offseason is what happens with the deadweight players, or Group C. If the Hawks can get rid of Huet and Sopel, the rest can fall into place without much detriment to the roster. Easier said than done however.
Where the Hawks are going to lose significant pieces this offseason is in Group D or E. No matter how you slice it, most likely 2 of those players are going to be gone. The Family Bowman is going to have to prioritize which of those 7 players are the most important to the Hawks future factoring in skill level, age, position and cap hit. How would I do this?
1) Niklas Hjalmarsson – To me, “Hammer” is the most important RFA to sign. The Hawks do have good depth in the system on the blue line with Shawn Lalonde, Dylan Olsen and Nick Leddy in the system. But I believe that Hjalmarsson can be a very, very good top 4 defenceman in this league, perhaps even top 2 some day. He’s reliable and getting better every day. In his first 2 years of the league, much of his time has been spent covering for Brian Campbell. The kid is top priority in my book.
2) Antii Niemi – No matter how you crunch the numbers, the Hawks for the next year or two really can’t afford a lot of money tied up in net. The playoffs will be the true litmis test for Niemi, but at the very worst he has shown he’s an above average NHL backup bordering on being a good NHL starter. At age 26, he can still get better. His athleticism is something that can’t be taught.
3) Patrick Sharp – There is no discounting Patrick Sharp’s value to this team. His versatility to play center in a pinch is also important. He’s normally a dependable two-way player and can play on either of the top 2 lines. However, he may also be the most valuable trading chip of these 7 players, which is something to be considered. If it’s possible to trade Sharp for a pretty good number 2 C and save money at the same time, you have to consider it.
4) Andrew Ladd – To me, Ladd is one of the more underrated players on this team. He just goes about doing his job quietly but it is a very important job. Ladd is arguably the Hawks’ second best defensive winger behind Hossa. I believe if playing with Toews and Kane for 82 games he could pot 30 goals, but his value to this current roster is on the checking line.
5) David Bolland – I’ll come out and say that Bolland’s back issues worry me greatly. He hasn’t had a great season by any stretch. That said, if you remember back to last year he was one of the Hawks’ more clutch performers and played in a number of situations. The Hawks do have a lot of forward depth in the system, but not so much at center. Because of this, trading Bolland would only make sense if the Hawks got another center in return. Here’s hoping he’s fully healthy next year.
6) Dustin Byfuglien – You can’t teach what Buff has, and that’s size. Also, he’s a versatile player being able to fill in on the blue-line as the team has struggled with injuries to Brian Campbell and Kim Johnsson. In fact, I think he should be put back on D permanently but I doubt that’s going to happen. The problem with Buff is his motor. You see max effort from the guy once every 8-10 games it seems. For that reason, he’s down on this list.
7) Kris Versteeg – There is no doubt that Versteeg can be a very good player in this league and his puckhandling skills are a sight to behold at times. At age 24, he still has a lot of room to improve. That said, given the Hawks forwards both on the NHL team and in the system, he’s the most replaceable forward. Some team will get Versteeg for a discount and be very happy.
I reserve the right to adjust the order of this list after the playoffs are done.
It’s a reality that one or more players on that list of 7 will not be with the Blackhawks next year. It would be great if there was no salary cap so the Hawks could keep this core and secondary core together for a long time. It would also be great if either a) certain players were never signed in the first place and/or b) players were not over-paid on RFA contracts. If any of those were true, the Hawks would not be in this mess to the degree they are. But they are and there’s no use crying over spilt milk.
What do the Hawks do?
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