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Another thing that needs to be considered in looking forward for the Blackhawks is what the NHL salary cap will be for 2011-12. I won’t get into a lengthy decision on how the cap is calculated, and there is a nice breakdown at the 300 Level by the resident cap guru, but the NHL is probably looking at a cap between $62M-$63M or so. That is an increase of a couple million over the $59.4M cap in 2010-11.
Before talking about next year, one more item must be addressed and that is Cristobal Huet. You may remember him as the sieve goaltender who played for the Hawks for 2 years. He still has one season on his contract left, but it is assumed (and it is most likely) that the Hawks will eat Huet’s salary for one more season while Huet is loaned out to Europe.
So where do the Hawks go from here? I will assume the following things. First, I will assume the low end of that range for the cap, and assume the 2011-12 salary cap is $62M. I will also assume that Huet is playing in Europe and thus off the books. In making the roster projection, I will also try leave between $700-900K in cap space to allow for injury callups and to give the Hawks some flexibility at the trade deadline next year. Lastly, I’m not considering any of the kids or John Scott as locks for this team next year. They will be considered against all options.
The following will be my base for this projection:
1. Brian Campbell $7,142,875
2. Patrick Kane $6,300,000
3. Jonathan Toews $6,300,000
4. Brent Seabrook $5,800,000
5. Duncan Keith $5,538,462
6. Marian Hossa $5,275,000
7. Patrick Sharp $3,900,000
8. Niklas Hjalmarsson $3,500,000
9. Dave Bolland $3,375,000
10. Brian Bickell $541,666
Total: $47,673,004
Cap: $62,000,000
Space: $14,326,996
The Hawks in this base scenario have $14.3M to fill 11-12 spots on the roster. Of the money spent, $22M is tied up in their top 4 defenseman, and $25.6M on 6 forwards.
The base lineup is:
Sharp-Toews-Kane
2L-Bolland-Hossa
Bickell-3C-3R
4L-4C-4R
Keith-Seabrook
Campbell-Hjalmarsson
5D-6D
One question the Hawks will have to ask themselves is whether Bolland is better served as a second-line center or as a third line center. Is it better for the Hawks to play Sharp at second line center as opposed to on the first line with Toews and Kane? It’s debatable. It’s something that comes into play when projecting a lineup and at the end of the day how Quenneville chooses to adjust the lines will depend on what players Bowman brings in during the offseason. What Bowman does will depend on which players are available. Sharp’s versatility is a nice asset for this reason.
Let’s start with the RFA who is going to most likely be back, and that’s Corey Crawford. Crawford had a good rookie season and a solid showing in the playoffs. But let’s remember, it was just one season. The Hawks want him back, and Corey wants to be in Chicago as it provides him with a good opportunity to play behind one of the better teams in the league. In looking at comparable goaltenders, the most accurate comparison to Crawford is Jimmy Howard. Howard spent a lot of time in the minors like Crawford, got his chance with the Wings last year, and after putting in 2 years of work got a 2 year $4.5M contract from Detroit. Another comparable for Crawford is Jonathan Quick in Los Angeles who signed for 3 years and $5.4M. I expect to see something similar to those two for Crawford provided Bowman doesn’t overpay. A 2 year contract is fair to Crawford as it allows him to be a UFA relatively quickly, and if he proves that this year wasn’t a fluke, he can cash in after 2 years. I will project a 2 year, $4M contract for Crawford which is between Quick and Howard’s cap hits of $1.8M and $2.25M respectively.
Backup goaltender is an area where the Hawks will not be spending a lot of money. Alexander Salak is an option, but really it could be any veteran net-minder for around $700,000 or so. My belief is that the Hawks will look to spend less than $3M on goaltending combined. I’ll add a roster spot for “Backup G” at $700,000 to the base. That brings us to 12 players with $11.6M remaining.
Looking at the kids next, Nick Leddy is an interesting case. While Leddy held his own this season for the most part, one could ask whether Leddy’s development is better served by playing 25 minutes a night in all situations in Rockford as opposed to 15 minutes a night on the bottom pairing in the NHL. It’s a question with no easy answer. One solution from a cap perspective is Campbell is gone and Leddy slides into that role as Leddy is similar to Campbell minus the experience. I do think Leddy will be on the team next year, but starting him the AHL for half the season isn’t the worst idea in the world to me.
Ben Smith showed in his 9 games with the Hawks that he deserves to be considered for a roster spot. While not the biggest or fastest player, Smith has a knack for being in the right place at the right time due to his high hockey IQ. In addition, he plays with a bit of an edge. He can fill a spot on a second line in a pinch, but is probably best served in the bottom 6. Bottom line, is Smith appears to be a gamer and you can never have enough of those in the lineup.
Marcus Kruger and Jeremy Morin are two players that could make the squad next year, but I believe that whether they do or not will depend on what other moves the Hawks make. If the Hawks need a cheap center or cheap top 6 forward (despite them not being ready for the NHL) because they spent extra cap space elsewhere, then yes Morin or Kruger could be on the team. However, I think both are best served by playing lots of minutes in the AHL to start. Kruger could put 10-15 pounds and get used the North American game. Morin could work on other aspects of his game before moving up to the NHL full-time most likely in 2012-13.
In summarizing the kids, I see Leddy at his $1.1M cap hit and Smith at his $812,500 cap hit on the squad. That brings us to 14 players with $9.7M remaining. We will continue with the roster projection in Part 4.
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