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We can break down the current Hawks roster into a number of categories. The easiest way to do this is split the current roster up by their contract status (signed or unsigned). Within these groups, I’ll further break down these groups of players and will list the 2011-12 cap hit for the signed players as well.
Signed
Not going anywhere – Jonathan Toews ($6,300,000), Patrick Kane ($6,300,000), Duncan Keith ($5,538,462), Brent Seabrook- ($5,800,000)
Most likely not going anywhere – Marian Hossa ($5,275,000), Patrick Sharp ($3,900,000), Brian Bickell ($541,667)
Could possibly move, but still “core” – David Bolland ($3,375,000), Niklas Hjalmarsson ($3,500,000)
Try to move at almost all cost, but still probably here next year – Brian Campbell ($7,142,875)
Who knows – John Scott ($512,500)
The kids (on entry-level contracts) - Nick Leddy ($1,116,666), Ben Smith ($812,500), Marcus Kruger ($900,000), Jeremy Morin ($916,666)
Unsigned
Unrestricted Free Agents- Tomas Kopecky, Fernando Pisani, Ryan Johnson, Marty Turco, Jordan Hendry
Restricted Free Agents- Corey Crawford, Micheal Frolik, Troy Brouwer, Viktor Stalberg, Jake Dowell, Chris Campoli, Jake Dowell
In analyzing the current roster, we’ll start with the easiest item. That’s which players who are UFA who will not be back. There is no need to bring back Fernando Pisani, Jordan Hendry or Marty Turco. So let’s forget about them. Ryan Johnson provided a good 4th line presence for the Hawks, and he could be in consideration for a roster spot next year in the same role. Things get tricky with Tomas Kopecky, and this issue will be examined later on.
As for the RFAs, there is one no-brainer and that’s Corey Crawford. Stan Bowman has come out and said that Crawford is a top priority this off-season and that the Hawks want to bring him back. In looking at the other 6, decisions are going to have to be made as to whether or not they fit the Hawks plans going forward. I will say at this point that it is unlikely Jake Dowell is back. He seemed to be in Q's doghouse most of the year, and doesn't really add much to the squad. He is replaceable.
The signed players are pretty straightforward as well. Bottom line is that this core group of players has won the Hawks a Stanley Cup. In 2010-11 there was a bit of a Cup hangover and some players were not their best this season. However, this group of players has shown they have what it takes to win a Stanley Cup, and have hearts of champions as evidenced by the near-comeback against Vancouver in Round 1. I would not be disappointed if all of the signed players (minus the kids) are on the roster next year.
That said, I have broken those core players into smaller groups for a reason. Toews, Kane, Keith and Seabrook are not going anywhere this offseason. I also believe that Patrick Sharp and Marian Hossa should be part of this group subject to a couple of caveats. Sharp is a UFA after next season and Hossa has 10 years left on his contract (at a great cap hit for Hossa, but 10 years is 10 years).If you got an offer for either of those players that blew your socks off, you have to consider it. Brian Bickell is in that group because at near minimum wage at $541K, he will be on the team next year most likely. Up next are Dave Bolland and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Important pieces to the puzzle, but both slightly overpaid. There is no problem in keeping both of them (especially due to the fact the Hawks lack centers and stay at home D-men), but if the Hawks needed to move money to add a “big” piece elsewhere in the lineup, one of these two could be on the way out. It would most likely be Hjalmarsson as he spurned the Hawks by signing that offer sheet with San Jose, and the Hawks lack centers meaning Bolland is more valuable. As for John Scott, he could be a 22nd roster player next year, he could be in Rockford, like I say above, who knows.
Then you have Brian Campbell. Yes, he does bring value to the Hawks on the ice. However, he is grossly overpaid and the Hawks’ financial flexibility going forward could be greatly enhanced by moving Campbell. In addition, the Hawks have a number of younger defensemen in the system that play a similar style to Campbell for a fraction of Campbell’s cost. The problem is that Campbell has a limited no-trade clause (can only be traded to one of 8 teams of his choice) and that in any trade, the Hawks almost certainly would be taking a bad contract in return. There is the option of buying Campbell out as well, but that would put $2.4M of dead cap space on the books for the next 10 years. In Part 5 I will outline a couple options on how the Hawks could deal with Campbell.
Finally, we have the kids. In what is looking like Stan Bowman’s best trade, 20 year old Nick Leddy (acquired for Cam Barker from Minnesota last year) is looking like a keeper on the blueline. There were times that Leddy made rookie mistakes and looked out of place, but it’s obvious that the kid has a bright future. Ben Smith wasn’t called up to the NHL roster until game 81 of the regular season, but showed that he has a high hockey IQ and some much-needed grit during the Vancouver series. Marcus Kruger came over from Sweden in the middle of a playoff chase and also saw time in the playoffs. While Kruger looked physically out of place, he did get better as he gained more experience. Jeremy Morin also saw time with the Hawks during the season before his season ended with a concussion. Morin is perhaps the Hawks best “top 6 forward” prospect. The thing to keep in mind with the kids is that they are on entry-level contracts so the Hawks can still send them to Rockford without having to worry about waivers.
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