Chicago Blackhawks 2011 Offseason Guide - Part 6 - Conclusion

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The Chicago Blackhawks will continue to be one of the better teams in the National Hockey League in 2011-12 and going forward. While their cap situation and the current roster composition is not perfect, there are still a number of exceptional players on this team that have already won a Stanley Cup. Most of these players are still in their early to mid twenties and should continue to improve. Couple that with some young prospects who have shown the potential to supplement the core, and the future looks very bright for Chicago.

There is still work to be done however, and this offseason is a critical one for Stan Bowman’s future as Hawks GM. Last year it was hard to judge Bowman because there was only one thing he could do, and that was have a firesale to clean up the mess left by Dale Tallon. But this offseason will be different. There are needs the Hawks have to address, and Bowman will have options on how to address them. It will still be important for Bowman to save $100-200K here and there if he can as it will allow for more flexibility in filling out the roster. Hopefully the braintrust sees what needs to be addressed for the Hawks to continue to improve and make another run at the Stanley Cup.

While I'm sure most Blackhawks fans would have preferred a short offseason like last year's, the 2011 offseason promises to be an exciting one for the Hawks. If Bowman is able to properly construct the roster in the next four months, Hawks fans could be looking at many short offseasons in the years to come.

Chicago Blackhawks 2011 Offseason Guide - Part 5 - The Albatross

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The last issue I’ll spend some time on is every Chicago fans favorite albatross contract, Brian Campbell. By now, you should know that Campbell’s $7.1M cap hit for the next 5 years is a major burden on the Hawks salary cap. One thing is obvious, Campbell is not worth that money and he’s severely overpaid. However, a lot of fans let his contract distort the fact that Campbell is still a top 4 NHL caliber defenseman and while he has some weaknesses in his game, has a skill-set that in demand in today’s NHL being a puck-moving defenseman. Despite his value on the ice to the Hawks, from a cap perspective, the Hawks would be much better off if they can trade Campbell.

Campbell does have a no-trade clause in his contract that allows him to submit a list of 8 teams that he would accept a trade to at the start of each year. It is believed that these teams are Eastern teams as it would allow for Campbell to be close to his family.

When considering a possible trade partner for Campbell, the following must be kept in mind. First, the team must have significant salary cap space to fit Campbell’s contract. Further to that, another way to look at it is the potential trade partner must need to get to the salary cap floor (NHL teams have to spend a minimum of $16M less than the cap). The potential trading partner must also have a need for a puck-moving defenseman. As mentioned above, the team most likely would have to be in the Eastern Conference. Finally, the team most likely would have an albatross contract of their own they’d like to get rid of, and the Hawks would have to take back. Think Scott Gomez in Montreal or Mike Komisarek in Toronto.

One possible trade on HFBoards which actually elicited a decent response from both sets of fans was something involving Campbell for Komisarek. Komisarek has 3 years left at $4.5M per on his current contract and has struggled mightily for the Leafs in his time there. They are trying to move his contract and have a need for a puck-moving defenseman. The Hawks might have to throw in a sweetener in any deal to move Campbell, maybe a Kyle Beach. I still would make that trade. Campbell is a better player than Komisarek, but the Hawks save $2.6M in cap space and 2 years off the contract. Here’s what a possible roster could look like in a deal for Komisarek (generated by Capgeek):

FORWARDS
Patrick Sharp ($3.900m) / Jonathan Toews ($6.300m) / Patrick Kane ($6.300m)
Michael Frolik ($1.500m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Marian Hossa ($5.275m)
Bryan Bickell ($0.541m) / Marty Reasoner ($1.500m) / Ben Smith ($0.812m)
Tomas Kopecky ($1.600m) / Zenon Konopka ($0.950m) / Arron Asham ($1.000m)

DEFENSEMEN
Duncan Keith ($5.538m) / Brent Seabrook ($5.800m)
Nick Leddy ($1.116m) / Niklas Hjalmarsson ($3.500m)
John Scott ($0.512m) / Mike Komisarek ($4.500m)

GOALTENDERS
Corey Crawford ($2.000m) / Backup Goalie ($0.700m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $62,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $56,721,795; BONUSES: $545,000
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $5,278,205

Looking at the roster, the Hawks still need a defenseman (probably top 4Dman) and could have extra money to acquire a top 6 forward up front with the cap space saved. It gives the Hawks a lot of flexibility.

There is another option regarding Campbell and that’s a buyout of his contract. If the Hawks chose to buy out Campbell, there would be a dead cap hit on the Hawks salary cap of $2.4M for the next 10 years. Since Campbell makes $7.1M for the next 5 years, the Hawks would save $4.7M in cap space in years 1 thru 5, but then have $2.4M in dead cap space in years 6 thru 10. One must also remember that even though the Hawks save $4.7M in cap space in buying out Campbell, they still have to find a replacement for him and that will eat into the $4.7M of savings. This is a tricky solution as there are both positives and negatives to this. The Hawks wouldn’t have to take back a bad contract in any trade of Campbell, however, that $2.4M in dead cap space in years 6 thru 10 isn’t ideal. Looking at 2011-12 though, it does provide the Hawks with options as outlined below (using a $59.6M cap to account for the $2.4M buyout cap hit):

FORWARDS
Patrick Sharp ($3.900m) / Jonathan Toews ($6.300m) / Patrick Kane ($6.300m)
Michael Frolik ($1.500m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Marian Hossa ($5.275m)
Bryan Bickell ($0.541m) / Marty Reasoner ($1.500m) / Ben Smith ($0.812m)
Tomas Kopecky ($1.600m) / Zenon Konopka ($0.950m) / Arron Asham ($1.000m)

DEFENSEMEN
Duncan Keith ($5.538m) / Brent Seabrook ($5.800m)
Nick Leddy ($1.116m) / Niklas Hjalmarsson ($3.500m)
John Scott ($0.512m)

GOALTENDERS
Corey Crawford ($2.000m) / Backup Goalie ($0.700m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,600,000; CAP PAYROLL: $52,221,795; BONUSES: $545,000
CAP SPACE (19-man roster): $7,378,205

The Hawks would have $7.4M to find 2 defensemen and another forward. It would provide them with a number of options during the offseason to improve the team. The key to this option is whether the Hawks could find a top 4 defenseman to replace Campbell for a good price.

The two options outlined above are just that, options. The Hawks should be looking to deal Campbell all offseason. While that’s a tall task to accomplish, Campbell is still a good NHL player and would help a team on the ice. Do I think it’s likely he gets dealt? Probably not. It is more likely that Campbell will be on the 2011-12 roster due to the difficulty of trading him, and the fact it’s unlikely Rocky Wirtz chooses to buy him out.

One final interesting point regarding Campbell is that the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement expires at the end of the 2011-12 season. This is significant because a new CBA could allow NHL teams different options to deal with contracts such as Campbell’s. General managers like to have “erasers” for mistakes they make, and the only way it seems that GMs currently can correct mistakes is by burying contracts in the minors (Wade Redden, Huet, Sheldon Souray). It is my prediction that the new CBA will have some sort of mechanism to allow GMs more options when trying to deal with mistakes, either with a free buyout period at the start of the new CBA (not financially, but from a cap perspective), or allowing teams in trades to keep a portion of a player’s cap hit on their books instead of burying players in the minors.

But for now, Campbell will most likely be a Hawk in 2011-12 and the Hawks can still find a way to ice a very good hockey team in 2011-12 with him still on the roster.

Chicago Blackhawks 2011 Offseason Guide - Part 4 - Roster Projection ctd.

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Here’s where things get fun. As stated in Part 1, the key thing to remember in reading my roster projection is that I hold the belief that the Hawks need to get more sandpaper in their lineup. Also keep in mind that money is going to be a factor in these decisions. The Hawks were a flawed team in 2010-11, and it is not an option to bring back the same team if the Hawks want to get better. Some players will not be back.

With Ben Smith on the squad, that’s 7 forwards. Much of what has been written already and what is about to be written has been discussed in great detail at the 300 Level. Basically, the conclusion that the posters there have come to is that one (max) of each of the following players will be in Chicago next year. We’re most likely looking at a decision between Micheal Frolik and Viktor Stalberg. And a second decision between Tomas Kopecky and Troy Brouwer or neither of them.

Why are those players paired like this? A couple of reasons. I’ll start with Frolik and Stalberg. Both players are RFAs, can be maddening with their inconsistencies, and for the most part play a bit of a perimeter game (although both have shown flashes of not being afraid of the dirty areas). There’s room for one of these perimeter types on the team, but if the Hawks are going to improve their team from a sandpaper level, you can’t bring back every perimeter guy from last year’s team. Of course, contract demands will play a factor on who stays and who goes, but I would pick Frolik over Stalberg. He seemed to show chemistry with Bolland as the playoffs wore on, and has a much higher offensive upside.

This brings us Brouwer and Kopecky. Both are free agents, although Kopecky is a UFA and Brouwer is a RFA. Both are going to be looking for money in the $1.5M and up range. With it being a weaker UFA year, Kopecky has an opportunity to cash in on his career year this year. Again, money will be a factor in this decision. There’s a chance neither of them are back if they both want too much money. Bowman has to be smart here. All things being equal, I’d keep Kopecky over Brouwer. For what the Hawks need (bottom 6 players), Kopecky’s game is better suited there. Brouwer only seems to be productive when playing with Toews and Kane. When put in a bottom 6 role, he seemed to struggle. Kopecky was miscast at times by Quenneville in the top 6 this last year, but can be a very effective 3rd/4th liner. Plus he’s BFF with Hossa and may take a little less to stay in Chicago. It should be noted that if Kopecky wants $2M and Brouwer would take $1.2M, then I can live with keeping Brouwer to save $800K to use elsewhere. This decision will ultimately come down to money.

I’ll assume that Frolik and Kopecky are reasonable in their demands, and each take good raises over their last contracts, bringing Frolik in at $1.5M and Kopecky in at $1.6M. Stalberg and Brouwer could become trade bait if qualified as RFAs. That brings us to 16 players with $6.6M remaining.

Chris Campoli is an RFA, was decent for the Hawks in his short time in Chicago, and I can see the Hawks re-signing him. However, it is my opinion that the only way Campoli should be back is if a) the Hawks found a way to trade Campbell or b) the Hawks have decided to start Leddy in the minors. The reason for this is Campoli currently slots in as the Hawks 6th defenseman. His game is very similar to most of the Hawks current defensemen. The Hawks 6th defenseman should be a veteran shutdown defenseman who is tough play against and can kill penalties. The Hawks already have too many defensemen with Campoli’s skill-set (and who are better). I would try to trade him in the off-season.

That all said, with 5-6 more players to sign and $6.6M remaining in cap space we get to this point up front.

Sharp-Toews-Kane
Frolik-Bolland-Hossa
Bickell-3C-Kopecky
4L-4C-Smith

One could say that $6.6M for 6 spots isn’t a lot, but let’s keep in mind what the Hawks have to add at this point. They need depth/role players for their 3rd and 4th lines, and a stay at home 6th defenseman. Not exactly the most expensive positions on the roster to fill.

Could the Hawks look to spend a lot of dollars on another top 6 forward? They could. I will not deny that the Hawks could use a second line center or a top 6 power forward. Adding one is not impossible. But I would argue this is a luxury with this lineup. If I had $4M to spend on 3 forward slots, one way I could do this is spending $3M on a top 6 forward and then $500K on 2 fourth liners. The other way to look at it is spending $2M on a third line center, and then having extra money to make sure I’m not getting minimum wage 4th liners, but actual NHLers for $1M each.

Going after a top 6 forward could work if Morin or Kruger is ready as that could give you a bit of extra money to spend on a better forward as one of the kids could replace Kopecky or Frolik’s roster spot, saving the Hawks another $600-700K in cap space. Another way the Hawks could look to add a top-6 player is if the cap is closer to $63M in the NHL. However, if the cap is $62M I’d rather the Hawks focus on improving the bottom 6 with their remaining cap space, bank some cap space for the trade deadline and look to make an addition at the deadline.

How do the Hawks fill out the bottom 6 forward slots? They need certain types of players. Players that are physical and play with an edge. Preferably veteran players who are hungry to win a Stanley Cup and play with a lot of energy. Players that can kill penalties .The Hawks need centers, probably 2 of them. Centers who can win a faceoff and kill penalties should be a priority.

Some players who fit this bill and are UFA are Curtis Glencross, Joel Ward, Marty Reasoner, Zenon Konopka, Mike Rupp, Aaron Asham, Chris Clark, Jeff Halpern and John Madden. Glencross and Ward will be in high demand and that might drive the Hawks out of the bidding. Of this group, I’ll select Marty Reasoner, Zenon Konopka and Aaron Asham. Reasoner and Konopka are both centers and both very good faceoff men, which would address an area of weakness for the Hawks. Reasoner is a very good penalty killer as well which would help address another Hawks weakness. Some Hawks fans will remember Asham from the 2010 Stanley Cup Final when he played for Philadelphia, and he’s an effective fourth line player who plays with grit and toughness. Konopka is also tough as nails and would help the Hawks in that area.

For the purposes of this exercise, I’ll assume $1,500,000 for Reasoner, $1,000,000 for Asham and $950,000 for Konopka. That brings the Hawks to 19 players and $3.15M in cap space. I’ll add Scott as a 7th Dman which leaves the Hawks with $2.6M to find a 6th defenseman and a 13th forward. The Hawks could look to the free agent market to address the need for a 6th defenseman, or they could look to trade any of the RFAs that are not back (Brouwer, Stalberg or Campoli) for one.

This final projected roster would look like this:

1. Brian Campbell $7,142,875
2. Patrick Kane $6,300,000
3. Jonathan Toews $6,300,000
4. Brent Seabrook $5,800,000
5. Duncan Keith $5,538,462
6. Marian Hossa $5,275,000
7. Patrick Sharp $3,900,000
8. Niklas Hjalmarsson $3,500,000
9. Dave Bolland $3,375,000
10. Brian Bickell $541,666
11. Ben Smith $812,500
12. Nick Leddy $1,116,666
13. Corey Crawford $2,000,000
14. Backup Goalie $700,000
15. Micheal Frolik $1,500,000
16. Tomas Kopecky $1,600,000
17. Marty Reasoner $1,500,000
18. Aaron Asham $1,000,000
19. Zenon Konopka $950,000
20. John Scott $512,500
21. 6th Defenseman $1,400,000
22. 13th Forward $500,000

Total: $61,264,670
Cap: $62,000,000
Space: $735,330

The lineup would look like:

Sharp-Toews-Kane
Frolik-Bolland-Hossa
Bickell-Reasoner-Smith
Kopecky-Konopka-Asham
13F

Keith-Seabrook
Campbell-Hjalmarsson
Leddy – 6D
Scott

Crawford
Backup Goalie

This lineup addresses a number of the Hawks needs from last season. The lineup is much deeper up front for starters. No more Pisani or Stalberg playing valuable minutes. The additions of Reasoner and Konopka help the Hawks in the faceoff circle which is important for the Hawks because having the puck helps when you’re a puck possession team. With the additions of Konopka and Asham, this team becomes a lot tougher to play against from a physical perspective. Assuming you find a solid 6th defenseman to help kill penalties, this combined with Reasoner makes the Hawks penalty kill better (assuming Mike Kitchen doesn’t F things up).

Of course, there are many different directions that Bowman can take this offseason. What is refreshing is that this offseason will not be like last offseason where the only goal was to get under the salary cap. At least this season, Bowman can look to add to the team. Hopefully he makes the right decisions.

Chicago Blackhawks 2011 Offseason Guide - Part 3 - Roster Projection

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Another thing that needs to be considered in looking forward for the Blackhawks is what the NHL salary cap will be for 2011-12. I won’t get into a lengthy decision on how the cap is calculated, and there is a nice breakdown at the 300 Level by the resident cap guru, but the NHL is probably looking at a cap between $62M-$63M or so. That is an increase of a couple million over the $59.4M cap in 2010-11.

Before talking about next year, one more item must be addressed and that is Cristobal Huet. You may remember him as the sieve goaltender who played for the Hawks for 2 years. He still has one season on his contract left, but it is assumed (and it is most likely) that the Hawks will eat Huet’s salary for one more season while Huet is loaned out to Europe.

So where do the Hawks go from here? I will assume the following things. First, I will assume the low end of that range for the cap, and assume the 2011-12 salary cap is $62M. I will also assume that Huet is playing in Europe and thus off the books. In making the roster projection, I will also try leave between $700-900K in cap space to allow for injury callups and to give the Hawks some flexibility at the trade deadline next year. Lastly, I’m not considering any of the kids or John Scott as locks for this team next year. They will be considered against all options.

The following will be my base for this projection:

1. Brian Campbell $7,142,875
2. Patrick Kane $6,300,000
3. Jonathan Toews $6,300,000
4. Brent Seabrook $5,800,000
5. Duncan Keith $5,538,462
6. Marian Hossa $5,275,000
7. Patrick Sharp $3,900,000
8. Niklas Hjalmarsson $3,500,000
9. Dave Bolland $3,375,000
10. Brian Bickell $541,666

Total: $47,673,004
Cap: $62,000,000
Space: $14,326,996

The Hawks in this base scenario have $14.3M to fill 11-12 spots on the roster. Of the money spent, $22M is tied up in their top 4 defenseman, and $25.6M on 6 forwards.

The base lineup is:

Sharp-Toews-Kane
2L-Bolland-Hossa
Bickell-3C-3R
4L-4C-4R

Keith-Seabrook
Campbell-Hjalmarsson
5D-6D

One question the Hawks will have to ask themselves is whether Bolland is better served as a second-line center or as a third line center. Is it better for the Hawks to play Sharp at second line center as opposed to on the first line with Toews and Kane? It’s debatable. It’s something that comes into play when projecting a lineup and at the end of the day how Quenneville chooses to adjust the lines will depend on what players Bowman brings in during the offseason. What Bowman does will depend on which players are available. Sharp’s versatility is a nice asset for this reason.

Let’s start with the RFA who is going to most likely be back, and that’s Corey Crawford. Crawford had a good rookie season and a solid showing in the playoffs. But let’s remember, it was just one season. The Hawks want him back, and Corey wants to be in Chicago as it provides him with a good opportunity to play behind one of the better teams in the league. In looking at comparable goaltenders, the most accurate comparison to Crawford is Jimmy Howard. Howard spent a lot of time in the minors like Crawford, got his chance with the Wings last year, and after putting in 2 years of work got a 2 year $4.5M contract from Detroit. Another comparable for Crawford is Jonathan Quick in Los Angeles who signed for 3 years and $5.4M. I expect to see something similar to those two for Crawford provided Bowman doesn’t overpay. A 2 year contract is fair to Crawford as it allows him to be a UFA relatively quickly, and if he proves that this year wasn’t a fluke, he can cash in after 2 years. I will project a 2 year, $4M contract for Crawford which is between Quick and Howard’s cap hits of $1.8M and $2.25M respectively.

Backup goaltender is an area where the Hawks will not be spending a lot of money. Alexander Salak is an option, but really it could be any veteran net-minder for around $700,000 or so. My belief is that the Hawks will look to spend less than $3M on goaltending combined. I’ll add a roster spot for “Backup G” at $700,000 to the base. That brings us to 12 players with $11.6M remaining.

Looking at the kids next, Nick Leddy is an interesting case. While Leddy held his own this season for the most part, one could ask whether Leddy’s development is better served by playing 25 minutes a night in all situations in Rockford as opposed to 15 minutes a night on the bottom pairing in the NHL. It’s a question with no easy answer. One solution from a cap perspective is Campbell is gone and Leddy slides into that role as Leddy is similar to Campbell minus the experience. I do think Leddy will be on the team next year, but starting him the AHL for half the season isn’t the worst idea in the world to me.

Ben Smith showed in his 9 games with the Hawks that he deserves to be considered for a roster spot. While not the biggest or fastest player, Smith has a knack for being in the right place at the right time due to his high hockey IQ. In addition, he plays with a bit of an edge. He can fill a spot on a second line in a pinch, but is probably best served in the bottom 6. Bottom line, is Smith appears to be a gamer and you can never have enough of those in the lineup.

Marcus Kruger and Jeremy Morin are two players that could make the squad next year, but I believe that whether they do or not will depend on what other moves the Hawks make. If the Hawks need a cheap center or cheap top 6 forward (despite them not being ready for the NHL) because they spent extra cap space elsewhere, then yes Morin or Kruger could be on the team. However, I think both are best served by playing lots of minutes in the AHL to start. Kruger could put 10-15 pounds and get used the North American game. Morin could work on other aspects of his game before moving up to the NHL full-time most likely in 2012-13.

In summarizing the kids, I see Leddy at his $1.1M cap hit and Smith at his $812,500 cap hit on the squad. That brings us to 14 players with $9.7M remaining. We will continue with the roster projection in Part 4.

Chicago Blackhawks 2011 Offseason Guide - Part 2 - Current Roster

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We can break down the current Hawks roster into a number of categories. The easiest way to do this is split the current roster up by their contract status (signed or unsigned). Within these groups, I’ll further break down these groups of players and will list the 2011-12 cap hit for the signed players as well.

Signed

Not going anywhere – Jonathan Toews ($6,300,000), Patrick Kane ($6,300,000), Duncan Keith ($5,538,462), Brent Seabrook- ($5,800,000)

Most likely not going anywhere – Marian Hossa ($5,275,000), Patrick Sharp ($3,900,000), Brian Bickell ($541,667)

Could possibly move, but still “core” – David Bolland ($3,375,000), Niklas Hjalmarsson ($3,500,000)

Try to move at almost all cost, but still probably here next year – Brian Campbell ($7,142,875)

Who knows – John Scott ($512,500)

The kids (on entry-level contracts) - Nick Leddy ($1,116,666), Ben Smith ($812,500), Marcus Kruger ($900,000), Jeremy Morin ($916,666)

Unsigned

Unrestricted Free Agents- Tomas Kopecky, Fernando Pisani, Ryan Johnson, Marty Turco, Jordan Hendry

Restricted Free Agents- Corey Crawford, Micheal Frolik, Troy Brouwer, Viktor Stalberg, Jake Dowell, Chris Campoli, Jake Dowell

In analyzing the current roster, we’ll start with the easiest item. That’s which players who are UFA who will not be back. There is no need to bring back Fernando Pisani, Jordan Hendry or Marty Turco. So let’s forget about them. Ryan Johnson provided a good 4th line presence for the Hawks, and he could be in consideration for a roster spot next year in the same role. Things get tricky with Tomas Kopecky, and this issue will be examined later on.

As for the RFAs, there is one no-brainer and that’s Corey Crawford. Stan Bowman has come out and said that Crawford is a top priority this off-season and that the Hawks want to bring him back. In looking at the other 6, decisions are going to have to be made as to whether or not they fit the Hawks plans going forward. I will say at this point that it is unlikely Jake Dowell is back. He seemed to be in Q's doghouse most of the year, and doesn't really add much to the squad. He is replaceable.

The signed players are pretty straightforward as well. Bottom line is that this core group of players has won the Hawks a Stanley Cup. In 2010-11 there was a bit of a Cup hangover and some players were not their best this season. However, this group of players has shown they have what it takes to win a Stanley Cup, and have hearts of champions as evidenced by the near-comeback against Vancouver in Round 1. I would not be disappointed if all of the signed players (minus the kids) are on the roster next year.

That said, I have broken those core players into smaller groups for a reason. Toews, Kane, Keith and Seabrook are not going anywhere this offseason. I also believe that Patrick Sharp and Marian Hossa should be part of this group subject to a couple of caveats. Sharp is a UFA after next season and Hossa has 10 years left on his contract (at a great cap hit for Hossa, but 10 years is 10 years).If you got an offer for either of those players that blew your socks off, you have to consider it. Brian Bickell is in that group because at near minimum wage at $541K, he will be on the team next year most likely. Up next are Dave Bolland and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Important pieces to the puzzle, but both slightly overpaid. There is no problem in keeping both of them (especially due to the fact the Hawks lack centers and stay at home D-men), but if the Hawks needed to move money to add a “big” piece elsewhere in the lineup, one of these two could be on the way out. It would most likely be Hjalmarsson as he spurned the Hawks by signing that offer sheet with San Jose, and the Hawks lack centers meaning Bolland is more valuable. As for John Scott, he could be a 22nd roster player next year, he could be in Rockford, like I say above, who knows.

Then you have Brian Campbell. Yes, he does bring value to the Hawks on the ice. However, he is grossly overpaid and the Hawks’ financial flexibility going forward could be greatly enhanced by moving Campbell. In addition, the Hawks have a number of younger defensemen in the system that play a similar style to Campbell for a fraction of Campbell’s cost. The problem is that Campbell has a limited no-trade clause (can only be traded to one of 8 teams of his choice) and that in any trade, the Hawks almost certainly would be taking a bad contract in return. There is the option of buying Campbell out as well, but that would put $2.4M of dead cap space on the books for the next 10 years. In Part 5 I will outline a couple options on how the Hawks could deal with Campbell.

Finally, we have the kids. In what is looking like Stan Bowman’s best trade, 20 year old Nick Leddy (acquired for Cam Barker from Minnesota last year) is looking like a keeper on the blueline. There were times that Leddy made rookie mistakes and looked out of place, but it’s obvious that the kid has a bright future. Ben Smith wasn’t called up to the NHL roster until game 81 of the regular season, but showed that he has a high hockey IQ and some much-needed grit during the Vancouver series. Marcus Kruger came over from Sweden in the middle of a playoff chase and also saw time in the playoffs. While Kruger looked physically out of place, he did get better as he gained more experience. Jeremy Morin also saw time with the Hawks during the season before his season ended with a concussion. Morin is perhaps the Hawks best “top 6 forward” prospect. The thing to keep in mind with the kids is that they are on entry-level contracts so the Hawks can still send them to Rockford without having to worry about waivers.

Chicago Blackhawks 2011 Offseason Guide - Part 1 - Introduction

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One year ago at this time the Chicago Blackhawks were in the midst of a magical playoff run that led the Hawks to their first Stanley Cup in 49 years. This year, the season ended earlier than the most fans had hoped as the Blackhawks fell to rival Vancouver 4 games to 3 in the first round of the NHL playoffs. It was a difficult season for the Hawks for a number of reasons including the Cup Hangover, the trimming of the roster due to the salary cap and bonus penalties due to Toews and Kane achieving bonuses in 2009-10, injuries and fatigue, and the fact they had the target on their back that being a defending Stanley Cup champion carries. However, the idea behind this blog is not to summarize the 2010-11 season. It instead will focus on where the Blackhawks are today, and what things could look like going forward in 2011-12 and beyond.

The 2010-11 Chicago Blackhawks were a flawed team. The salary cap stripped the team of much of their physical and gritty depth. In looking at the roster, this is the main area of concern going forward. How do the Hawks go about adding the physicality and sandpaper that this team was missing in 2010-11? There’s a couple of ways that this can be done, either through development of young players in the organization who fit these roles going forward, signing free-agents to fill those roles, or via trade. When reading this blog, it is important to remember that a lot of the decisions on how this writer would fill the roster going forward are based on what has been said above. The Hawks need to add sandpaper and depth to their lineup, moreso than adding another big name.

Other Hawks needs include more depth at center, a physical stay at home defenseman for the third pairing. Addressing those two needs would go a long way to addressing the need to improve the Hawks’ penalty kill which ranked near the bottom of the league for much of the 2010-11 season.

The rest of this blog will be as follows:

Part 2 will deal with the current roster. In Part 3 I will begin to project a 2011-12 roster. Part 4 will continue with the 2011-12 roster projection. Part 5 will discuss Brian Campbell and Part 6 will wrap things up.

Part 2 - Way Too Early Lineup Projection – August 6, 2010

(c) Dave Sandford - Getty Images
Kyle Beach finds himself on the bubble this season

Part 1 outlines the rationale with coming to these projections.

These players are locked into the roster for opening night (assuming if you believe what Bowman has said about Crawford getting his chance this year).Those italicized are most likely on the team barring them crapping the bed in training camp:

Goalies (2): Marty Turco, Corey Crawford

Defencemen (5): Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brian Campbell, Jordan Hendry

Forwards (11): Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, David Bolland, Troy Brouwer, Tomas Kopecky, Brian Bickell, Jake Dowell, Viktor Stalberg, Jack Skille

21st man/nuclear weapon with his fists for when the Hawks play St. Louis (13F or 7D): John Scott

This brings us to a total of 2, maybe 3 spots up for grabs. The last defenceman spot will either be a veteran UFA or one of Ivan Vishnevsky or Shawn Lalonde. There is a forward spot available, and this will likely come down to Kyle Beach, Igor Makarov and Jeff Taffe. There may be a UFA in there like a Tim Kennedy, but that remains to be seen. Lastly, Hannu Toivenen will battle Corey Crawford for the backup goaltender spot, with Crawford having the inside track.

During the year, the Hawks will have injury call ups or carry a 22nd player. As seen in the first section, the daily cap hit of the players on the Rockford Express is between $2,600-$4,400 per day. For the purpose of this projection, I’ll assume $3,500 per day, and that 100 days the Hawks have a 22nd player up. So, the total the Hawks would use on call-ups during the year would be anywhere between $350K to $500K or so.

I’m going to use Visnevskiy as placeholder for the 5th defenceman. I think he’s closer than Lalonde should no UFA Dman be signed. Also, $821K is close to what a veteran UFA D-man would get. For the last forward spot, it really comes down to Makarov and Beach. Both have high upside. Makarov is probably the better two-way player and comes in with a cheaper cap hit of $553K. He’s probably more mature than Beach as well, having played against men for 2 years now. On the other hand Beach would bring more of a physical element to the Hawks, and if he shows maturity he could be a big-time contributor on a line with Toews and Kane, creating plenty of space for those two to operate. However, he could use some seasoning in the minors to get used to the pro game and has a higher cap hit ($1.17M including bonuses, $845K without bonuses). So in my mind there’s two scenarios here:

1) Beach makes the team:
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Kyle Beach ($1.170m) / Jonathan Toews ($6.300m) / Patrick Kane ($6.300m)
Troy Brouwer ($1.025m) / Patrick Sharp ($3.900m) / Marian Hossa ($5.275m)
Viktor Stalberg ($0.850m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Tomas Kopecky ($1.200m)
Bryan Bickell ($0.541m) / Jake Dowell ($0.525m) / Jack Skille ($0.600m)

DEFENSEMEN
Duncan Keith ($5.538m) / Brent Seabrook ($3.500m)
Brian Campbell ($7.142m) / Niklas Hjalmarsson ($3.500m)
Jordan Hendry ($0.600m) / Ivan Vishnevskiy ($0.821m)
/ John Scott ($0.512m)

GOALTENDERS
Marty Turco ($1.300m) /Corey Crawford ($0.800m)

CARRY-OVER BONUS PENALTY: $4,157,753

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,935,757; BONUSES: $390,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $854,243

If Beach makes the team, he’s best served playing on one of the top 2 lines. Skille and Kopecky could be interchangeable here. So could Beach and Brouwer. This lineup leaves cap space of $854,243. With my call-up assumption of anywhere between $350-500K, this would leave the Hawks with somewhere between $350 to $500K in cap space at the trade deadline to make an addition or two.

This is a pretty solid lineup, assuming that Beach is ready to go and can contribute. I like the Rockford veterans as the 4th line as they’ll have familiarity with each other and have a bit of everything that a 4th line should have. Dowell and Bickell with grit, Skille with good speed.

2) Makarov makes the team ahead of Beach
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Troy Brouwer ($1.025m) / Jonathan Toews ($6.300m) / Patrick Kane ($6.300m)
Viktor Stalberg ($0.850m) / Patrick Sharp ($3.900m) / Marian Hossa ($5.275m)
Tomas Kopecky ($1.200m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Jack Skille ($0.600m)
Bryan Bickell ($0.541m) / Jake Dowell ($0.525m) / Igor Makarov ($0.552m)

DEFENSEMEN
Duncan Keith ($5.538m) / Brent Seabrook ($3.500m)
Brian Campbell ($7.142m) / Niklas Hjalmarsson ($3.500m)
Jordan Hendry ($0.600m) / Ivan Vishnevskiy ($0.821m)
/ John Scott ($0.512m)


GOALTENDERS
Marty Turco ($1.300m) /Corey Crawford ($0.800m)

CARRY-OVER BONUS PENALTY: $4,157,753

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,317,424; BONUSES: $65,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,147,576

Assuming that Makarov is NHL-ready, and this is a big assumption because he’s been playing in Russia and we haven’t seen him much lately, this is the ideal scenario to start the season in my opinion. The Hawks would have $1.15M in cap space. This allows space for not only injury call-ups, but for performance-based call-ups as well. The Hawks could carry a 22 man roster for longer stretches of the season, and if a kid is playing well in Rockford, he’s up with the big club for longer. Or looking at it from the flip side, if there is a player in Chicago that needs to be benched to send a message, the 22nd player stays up for longer as well.

I’ll assume the top end of the range for call-ups of $500K. This would leave the Hawks around $650K in cap space at the deadline. They would then be able to acquire one or more players with a combined cap hit of between $3-3.5M which could be useful for the playoffs.

I’m pretty sure that Beach will be making more than his fair share of appearances in the lineup during the year regardless if he starts on the roster or not. Giving him 40-50 games in Rockford to get used to the pro-game and show some maturity might be best for his development. If he progresses as he should, then bring him up for the last 20-30 games of the year and go from there.

Even if he’s not on the opening night roster, Vishnevskiy is another guy that I can see playing 20-30 games in the NHL at least. He fits the Hawks style and is regarded by some as a future powerplay QB. He has some NHL experience already as well. While early on in the season it might serve Vishnevskiy best to get 20-25 minutes a night in Rockford as opposed to 12-14 minutes on the 3rd pair in Chicago, he’ll probably be up in Chicago in the second half of the year.

So what I’ve proposed is a 21 man roster that will be a 22 man roster for a lot of nights during the season (especially on road trips), kind of like a hybrid between the two. While the Hawks will be younger this year, the youth will not be relied upon to carry the team as the Hawks still possess arguably the best core group of players in the NHL. Instead, the youth will be asked to provide energy, and to support the core by going out on the ice and doing their job. It’s going to be fun to watch who of the young players being given this opportunity can step up and take advantage. Regardless of who steps up, the defending Stanley Cup Champs are still going to be a force to be reckoned with in 2010-11.

Part 1 - Way Too Early Lineup Projection – August 6, 2010

(c) Associated Press
Jordan Hendry is officially back in the fold for 2010-11

It’s summer which means it’s time to BBQ, get outside and enjoy seeing girls with less clothing on than you would in winter. However, August is also the dog days of the sports season unless you’re into baseball, and generally that’s not the case for me until late September. So for us hockey junkies, our minds keep thinking ahead to October and the start of the 2010-11 NHL season. Well, that, and continuing to celebrate the Stanley Cup win if you’re a Hawks fan.

In minor, expected news, the Blackhawks have re-signed Jordan Hendry to a 1 year, $600K contract, per capgeek.com. Hendry has been with the Hawks for a couple of years now and is your average NHL 6th or 7th defenceman. Which is pretty much where he’s going to slot for the Hawks in this coming year.

With that signing, the pieces are pretty much in place when it comes to projecting the 2010-11 Chicago Blackhawks roster. There’s still a couple of spots up from grabs, and there may still be one or two depth signings by Stan Bowman. These depth signings would most likely be a 3rd pairing defenceman who can kill penalties and has some sandpaper to him, and possibly a veteran defensive minded forward. If Bowman only signs one player, the priority should be a 5th defenceman who fits that description above. Some possibilities are Mike Mottau, Jay McKee or Shane Hnidy.

After the signing of Marty Turco for the bargain price of $1.3M, the Hawks have some flexibility in how they handle the 2010-11 season from a cap standpoint. They can choose to use the extra cap space now to fill out the roster before the season starts. Or they could save some of the cap space for the trade deadline.

Regarding the trade deadline, here’s the quick math. Assuming a trade deadline of Wednesday, March 2nd, if a team were to trade for a player on the deadline, they’d only have to pay him for 40 days the rest of the year. There are 193 days (or so) in the NHL season. In other words, you’d only be paying for roughly 20% of the player’s contract that you pick up. What does this mean in terms of cap space? In essence, every $100K in cap space you have at the deadline is worth $500K in annual cap hit for the player. For example, say you want to pick up Andrew Ladd at the deadline (we can only dream). His cap hit is $2.35M. If you traded for Ladd at the deadline, you’d only need $500K in cap space at the deadline to acquire him and fit under the cap.

I’m of the opinion that the Hawks should try to save as much cap space for the trade deadline as possible. While the Hawks could use another defensive minded, veteran forward, why pay this forward $1.5M for the entire year? Give the kids a chance early on, and make a trade at the deadline if you need to. That way you’re only paying $300K on your cap for this veteran. The Hawks have a plethora of picks and prospects they can deal if need be.

Another debate will be whether or not the Hawks carry a 21 or 22 man roster. I’m of the opinion that you go with 21 for the most part. Why? A couple of reasons. The Hawks have a geographical advantage when it comes to their farm team being located 2 hours away in Rockford. If a player is needed for a game or two, the Hawks can call him up the day of the game, especially when they are at home. This way the Hawks only pay the daily cap hit when they use these players. From Hawkscap.com, the daily cap hits of some players who may be needing a lot of money on their I-Pass while they do the “Rockford Shuffle” are:

•Kyle Beach ($1.17M cap hit, $845K after taking out bonuses): $4,400 per day ($6,066 with bonuses included);
•Ivan Vishnevskiy ($821K cap hit): $4,257 per day;
•Shaun Lalonde ($773K cap hit, $573K after taking out bonuses): $2,867 per day ($4,007 with bonuses included);
•Igor Makarov ($553K cap hit): $2,863 per day;
•Jeff Taffe ($550K cap hit): $2,849 per day;
•Any player with a $500K cap hit (Hugh Jessiman, Rob Klinkhammer, etc): $2,590 per day.

So you’re looking at roughly between $2,600-$4,400 per day each time you call up a player from Rockford. Why have a player to sit in the press box and have his $500K off the cap when instead you maybe use this player for half the time? You save $250K on your cap by using the Rockford Express.

Another reason to roll with 21 is because a lot of these players mentioned are still young and developing as players. Examples of these players are Beach, Lalonde and Vishnevskiy. They would be better served playing 20 minutes a night every night instead of sitting and watching in the press box.

Lastly on this point, looking at the Hawks schedule there’s a few sections that stand out. They are:

•November 17th to November 27th (6 game road trip over 11 days)
•February 1st to February 12th (6 game road trip over 12 days)
•March 5th to March 13th (4 game east coast road trip over 8 days)
•Between January 15th and January 31st the Hawks only play 5 games.

For these road trips, it probably would be wise to carry a 22nd man as you’re not close to Rockford. But instead of carrying this 22nd man for 193 days, you carry him for 31 days leading to cap savings. Conversely, for that time the Hawks only play 5 games in 16 days, there’s no need to have 22 on the roster.

Part 2 will outline the roster projection as of August 6, 2010.

Adios Antti

(c) Canadian Press
Say hello to your new goaltender Hawks fans...

About a year ago at this time, the Chicago Blackhawks were heading into the 2009-10 season ready to go to war with Cristobal Huet as their starting netminder. In training camp, a young Finnish goaltender named Antti Niemi beat out Corey Crawford for the backup job. Nobody at the time saw this as some huge development because nobody really knew exactly much about this 26 year old from Finland.

Fast forward to June 9, 2010. The Chicago Blackhawks are hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup. In the course of a year, Niemi was solid during his regular season starts, Huet imploded; Niemi took over the starting job, had a very solid playoffs and despite still looking baby-faced with a playoff beard, was going to go down in Blackhawks history as the goaltender on the team that ended 49 years of misery for Hawks fans.

What a difference a year makes. Or what a difference a month makes. From the euphoria of that Stanley Cup win has come a pretty gut-wrenching offseason for Hawks fans. Due to the salary cap constraints this team faced, a lot of fan-favorites and key role players in the Stanley Cup run are now wearing different jerseys. A lot of us knew this was coming. But knowing what was going to happen hasn’t made it any easier for us. Despite the solid returns the Hawks got back in the trades, it has been tough to see half of the Stanley Cup roster gone.

Niemi was a RFA and the Hawks tried to get him signed. However, negotiations seemed to go nowhere and Niemi’s agent Bill Zito elected to take the Hawks to arbitration. Over the weekend the arbitrator awarded Niemi a 1 year $2.75M contract. The Hawks had 48 hours to decide on whether to accept the decision and keep Niemi, accept the decision and trade Niemi, or to walk away and make Niemi an unrestricted free agent.

In the end, the Hawks chose to walk away from the arbitrator’s decision thus ending the Antti Niemi era in Chicago. The reason being that if they chose to accept the decision it would mean rolling with a 20 or 21 man roster for the 2010-11 season with little cap room to account for injuries and call-ups. Either that, or you’re looking at dealing Patrick Sharp or David Bolland. Add in the fact that the Hawks would go through this same song and dance next year with Niemi when he’s a UFA and would probably want more than $2.75M and you can see why the Hawks decided what they did.

It is tough to see a goaltender who helped the Hawks win the Stanley Cup go, especially when this goaltender still has some potential to get better and has shown he can handle the pressure of the playoffs. Hawks fans have every right to be upset and if they decided to blame any of: Tallon’s overpayments putting the Hawks in this position, Campbell and his contract, the fact the Hawks get punished for Toews winning the Conn Smythe and $4.2M in bonuses carrying over to this year, Bowman Jr. not being able to sign Hjalmarsson before the San Jose offer sheet, Bill Zito being unreasonable (especially if the rumored $8M over 3 year offer was extended by the Hawks) or any other reason, each reason would have it’s merit. But such is life. It’s obvious that Antti valued every last hundred thousand dollars over staying in Chicago, and I can understand this considering the guy was driving a zamboni in Finland a few years ago for a few extra bucks. I wish him the best, and hopefully he ends up in the Eastern Conference.

The Hawks had a pretty good plan B in my opinion, and that’s Marty Turco coming in at $1.3M for one year. While I’m of the opinion that if I had one game to win tomorrow, I’m going with Niemi over Turco any day of the week, Turco is not a slouch. There has been some drop-off in Turco’s play as of late, but some of that can be attributed to playing on Dallas team that was pretty bad defensively these last few years. Turco still posted solid save % numbers last year. In addition, he will bring an added element to the Hawks’ transition game as he’s one of the best puckhandling goaltenders in the game today.

Turco accepted less money to play in Chicago to go for a championship. At 34, he wants to prove he has something left in the tank so he can get one more pay-day before he retires. To say he’s going to be motivated and have a chip on his shoulder to prove his doubters wrong would probably be an understatement. Hopefully he’s able to take advantage of this opportunity in front of him.

With this move, the Hawks give themselves $1.45M in cap room this year to finish filling out the roster. This is significant as it actually allows for competition in training camp (i.e. making sure that the Hawks have the flexibility to take the guy making $850K instead of $600K if the player making more plays better), and allows the Hawks some money to go after a veteran 3rd pairing defenceman. Also, it allows the Hawks some cushion to account for injuries and call ups during the season as opposed to having maybe $200K while rolling with a 20 man roster. Lastly, the Hawks can save some cap space for the trade deadline and make an addition or two for the playoff run.

The next entry will look at the big picture and try to project the roster for next year.

Odds and Ends

(c) Getty Images

Over the last week, the Hawks made a couple of rumored signings official. As mentioned below, the Hawks signed Jack Skille to a 1 year, $600K contract. It appears that Skille will get his opportunity to make a name for himself in the NHL this upcoming season. While many Hawks fans would rather have Buff, Versteeg or Ladd in that spot, some of the Rockford kids are going to get their shot in 2010-11 to prove their worth and that might have some value in itself. This is probably Skille’s last chance with the Hawks, so hopefully he takes advantage of it.

The Hawks also announced the signing of Brian Bickell to a 3 year, $1.625M deal ($541K cap hit). Good job again by Stan on this contract as Bickell has been a contributor in each of the opportunities he’s been up with Chicago. Queneville is a fan of Bickell as well as he’s mentioned many times in the press, and even rewarded him with a few games up on the Toews and Kane line during the season. Most likely we’re going to see Bickell manning the LW on the 4th line in 2010-11.

The Blackhawks also signed former New York Rangers first round pick Hugh Jessiman. Jessiman has some size as he measures in at 6’6” and 231 pounds. He’s bounced around the AHL the last couple of years and it’s most likely that this is a signing for Rockford. Power forwards take a longer time to develop and I’m probably reaching, but maybe he’s a late bloomer. At 1 year at $500K on a two-way contract, it’s definitely worth the risk in finding out.

Nick Leddy, the 16th overall pick in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft (by Minnesota) also has come to terms with the Blackhawks on a 3 year entry level contract. Leddy was acquired in the mid-season trade that saw Cam Barker traded to Minnesota for Leddy and Kim Johnsson. During his freshman year, Leddy played in all situations at the University of Minnesota. During Prospect Camp a couple weeks ago, Leddy turned some heads with his effortless skating and overall solid play.

Why pull Leddy from college early if you’re the Hawks? That seems to be the million dollar question. For the last couple of years those in the know have speculated that NHL GMs haven’t been too impressed with prospect development at the University of Minnesota. This could be a factor into the signing. Perhaps the Hawks feel it’s better for Leddy’s development to be in the AHL, or perhaps play one year in the WHL (Tri-Cities holds his WHL rights and he has the option to play there). Most likely, Leddy will play 2010-11 in Rockford and probably another year after that. But it is possible that Leddy will be on the Hawks roster sooner than a lot of people thought.

Finally, today is the day that Antii Niemi’s arbitration hearing took place. It appeared that Niemi’s camp was not going to budge on their rumored demands of $4M so no deal was agreed to before the hearing. The arbitrator has 48 hours to make their decision, and then from that point the Hawks will have 48 hours to decide whether they accept the deal, or walk away. Another option the Hawks have is to accept the deal and then trade Niemi if there is interest. That remains to be seen.

With all of the minor tweaking done by the Hawks, they can probably stomach a cap hit of close to $3M for Niemi if they so choose. This might mean starting with 20 skaters on the opening night roster, but it is an option. Anything more than that, and the Hawks will walk away and sign either Marty Turco or Jose Theodore as a one year stop gap. My personal plan would be to sign either of those two to a $1.5-2M contract, save the additional cap space and if whomever you sign craps the bed during the year, you have a little bit of wiggle room at the trade deadline to acquire a better goaltender.

The Hawks have done well here to not give in to Niemi’s (or his agent Bill Zito’s demands). Bowman has done everything he reasonably could to free up more dollars to give to Niemi. It appears that wasn’t enough for Zito. Bottom line, if to create more room so Niemi can make $4M you have to trade Patrick Sharp or David Bolland, the correct response is thank you Antii for your performance last year, but we can’t do that and best of luck to you. That, and to tell Bill Zito to go F himself too.

We’ll see what the arbitrator decides here in the next day or two.

A precursor?

(c) Getty Images
Could a deal with Niemi be close?

On Thursday afternoon the Chicago Blackhawks sent Marty Reasoner to Florida for Jeffrey Taffe. Reasoner, acquired in the Dustin Byfuglien deal, ended his short time as a Blackhawk within a month of arriving in Chicago.

I’m sure that when the trade for Reasoner was made, Stan Bowman envisioned that Reasoner would be a poor-man’s version of John Madden for the 4th line, but at a bargain price of $1.15M. However, with other developments this offseason, it has become apparent that the Hawks do not have the luxury of paying $1.15M to a 4th line center this year due to their salary cap constraints.

I’d be lying if I said I knew a lot about Taffe. He’s bounced between a number of AHL teams and the big league in the Blues, Coyotes and Panthers organizations. His cap hit is $550K and he did play 21 games for the Panthers last year, so he may be a candidate for a 4th line job in Chicago next year. He’ll probably compete against Jake Dowell for the 4th line center spot. Should he lose the battle to Dowell the Hawks will waive Taffe and if he clears waivers he’d be assigned to Rockford.

So why make this deal today if you’re Bowman? Well, looking at the calendar we’re one week away from Antii Niemi’s arbitration date of July 29th. As outlined already on this blog, a way that the Hawks could free up some extra cap space for their 2010-11 roster is by getting rid of Reasoner’s $1.15M cap hit and replacing him with someone making $500K or so.

Am I of the opinion that this extra $600K saved is all going to Niemi? Not entirely, as this money could represent the extra cushion the Hawks need to carry for injuries next year, or for signing another Dman, etc. But given the timing of this deal, I think it’s more than likely that this deal has a lot to do with Niemi’s upcoming arbitration.

As outlined before on this blog, $2.75M was the magic number for Niemi. With the trade of Reasoner , the Hawks could potentially go to $3M or so on Niemi. Perhaps the Hawks can get Niemi signed for more than one year given the extra cap room. I’m sure Bowman would like to avoid the headache of trying to re-sign Niemi after next season if he could.

It remains to be seen whether Bowman elects to go to arbitration and use this extra cap space as a bit of a “cushion” in terms of how high the Hawks can go on the arbitrator's amount, or he uses this space to get a deal done before July 29th. Personally, I believe that the Reasoner trade indicates that there may be a solution to getting Niemi signed before July 29th. The next couple of days should be pretty interesting on the Niemi front.

More Skille Sightings in 2010-11?

(c) Julie Rubes
Perhaps you'll stay in Chicago for more than 4 games this time Jack..

The Blackhawks continue making minor moves as they re-signed restricted free agent Jack Skille to a one-year, $600K contract per the Chicago Sun-Times. I characterize this as another shrewd move by Bowman as he continues to try to find talented, cheap (the operative word) options to fill out the 2010-11 Blackhawks roster.

Skille was the Blackhawks first round selection in 2005. While his career to this point has not been what many Hawks fans have hoped for, Skille has made strides in the last couple of years while playing for the Hawks’ AHL affiliate in Rockford and a few call up games these last few years for the Hawks. In fact, he earned the nickname “I-Pass” this last season as early in the year the Hawks would bring Jack up for a game and then send him back to Rockford the next day in order to save a little money against the cap.

While on his entry-level contract, Skille’s cap hit was around $1.2M. With the Blackhawks operating close to the salary cap limit in the last couple of years, it can be said that having such a high cap number didn’t help his chances to make the big squad. I would not say this is the reason Skille wasn’t a regular in the Hawks lineup. He has had opportunities in the past to make impressions, but did not take advantage of them either. So it’s a little bit of missed opportunities on his part, and his high cap number that contributed to him playing in Rockford.

It appears that Skille and his agent were determined not to let a high cap number be an impediment to Skille reaching his NHL dreams. As a restricted free agent, the Hawks qualified Skille this offseason at a 10% raise of his base salary which would be close to $900K for the season. Skille could have signed this offer. However, with money tight in the Windy City this year, this $900K cap number might have worked against him in his efforts to make the Hawks. Recognizing that there are job opportunities for the Hawks and that money would be a factor, Skille was faced with the following decision:

a) Sign the qualifying offer, higher NHL money if he makes the NHL, but if he doesn’t, he gets paid an AHL salary of anywhere between $65-100K

b) Sign a cheaper NHL contract at $600K, thus increasing his chances to make the NHL as he’s a cheaper option now.

Skille obviously chose option B with the idea that making the NHL at $600K is better than not making the NHL (not getting the $900K then) and getting paid $60K in the AHL. He wants to get his NHL career started which probably leads to higher paydays in the future. I commend him for recognizing this.

This helps the Hawks as well obviously, as every couple hundred thousand saved is going to help, and could be used to help pay netminder Antii Niemi. I won’t go into another lineup projection today, but assuming both Skille and Makarov are ready to contribute at the NHL level, it gives the Hawks 2 kids making $1.1M combined who have some upside in addition to having a little more financial flexibility.

From Russia with Love? Some minor moves made in the last 24 Hours

(c) DailyMe
Brian Bickell isn't Russian, but he'll be in the Opening Night lineup



I know that I said I was going to hold out on projecting a lineup until we found out the result of the Niemi arbitration and a couple of the other minor signings. In the last day or two there has been a minor move and some news that has caught my attention.

First, Andy Strickland reports that the Hawks are closing in on a deal with Brian Bickell. This makes sense on a lot of levels, as Bickell has been serviceable everytime the Hawks have called him up including a couple of games in the Nashville series. He has skated with Toews and Kane before, but for next year’s team I see him on the 4th line with Jake Dowell. I do not foresee a high cap number for Bickell.

To go off on a tangent here, with the Hawks having the following combination: a) cap problems, b) a lot of job openings and c) a lot of prospects, some of these prospects are realizing that if they take slightly less money this year, it might improve their chances of making the NHL.

Following this logic, the Blackhawks made a very interesting signing either late last night or early today. The Blackhawks agreed to terms with 2006 second round selection Igor Makarov on a 2 year deal worth $552,500 per year. The contract has an European escape clause as well, which would most likely indicate if Makarov doesn’t make the Hawks he’d head back to Russia for a year.

It’s been a while since most Hawks fans have seen Makarov, as he’s spent the last couple of years in the KHL. He’s played on 3rd and 4th lines on his team as he was buried behind older, more experienced players. Whether or not this has stunted his development is unknown. Most Hawk fans (on message boards this writer frequents) who saw Makarov at earlier prospect camps came away very impressed and to some he looked like “a man amongst boys”. Keep in mind these were prospect camps that former Blackhawks such as Kris Versteeg attended.

For a better talent analysis on what Makarov brings to the table, Hockeys Future has a breakdown here.

What does this all mean? I think Makarov is going to have every chance to make the Hawks next year. He’s ahead of most Hawk prospects in the fact that he’s already spent a couple years playing against men 10 years older than him. From all accounts, he’s not like most Russian players and can play a 2 way game, is gritty, has good hands and can provide a little offence. Sound like someone who played on the third line last year who now plays for Toronto? I am by no means saying that Makarov will replace Versteeg because that would be crazy, but let’s just say I would not be surprised to see him slotted on that 3rd line come October. Plus there’s the great $553K cap hit that improves his chances even more.

Without getting into a detailed number crunch, assuming a cap number of close to $2.75M for Niemi from the arbitrator, and Makarov being able to contribute, this lineup would be very close to the cap (thanks to Hawkscap.com for a number breakdown and a base for which to work with):

Brouwer ($1.03M)-Toews ($6.3M)-Kane ($6.3M)
Stalberg ($0.85M)-Sharp ($3.9M)-Hossa ($5.28M)
Kopecky ($1.2M)-Bolland($3.38M)-Makarov ($0.53M)
Bickell ($0.6M*)- Reasoner ($1.15M)-Dowell ($0.53M)

Keith ($5.54M) – Seabrook ($3.5M)
Campbell ($7.14M) – Hjalmarsson ($3.5M)
D5 ($0.8M) – UFA Veteran D6 ($0.8M)
Scott ($0.51M)

Niemi ($2.75M)
Toivenen ($0.55M)

Forwards total: $31.0M
Defencemen total: $21.8M
Goaltenders total: $3.3M

Hawks Cap after $4.2M bonus penalty: $55.2M
Total of this lineup: $56.1M

D5 will be one of Lalonde or Visnevskiy.

This lineup is close, and works under the cap if Reasoner is waived, or if the Hawks decide to go with 20 players as opposed to 21 players (Scott moves up to the 4th line in this scenario). Money can also be saved on the UFA veteran D6 is signed for less than $0.8M.

So there’s a rough guess of the lineup as of July 14th, 2010. We continue to wait for other dominos to fall.

Mid-July Summary

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The Hammer will be in Chicago for a while

The first couple of weeks of July haven't been too crazy when it comes to the Hawks, but there have been a couple things going on.

Hawks match offer for Hjalmarsson

Late last week the San Jose Sharks decided to adopt the mantra of “if we can’t beat them on the ice we’ll beat them in the boardroom” and signed Niklas Hjalmsarsson to a 4 year $14 million offer sheet. All sarcasm aside, the move was understandable from the perspective of San Jose GM Doug Wilson as they are high on Hjalmarsson and it put the screws to the Hawks in terms of their well-documented cap problems.

Earlier today Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman announced that the Blackhawks will in fact match the offer to Hjalmarsson. I’ve stated many times on this blog that Hjalmarsson is a key part of this team going forward and should be kept around. It’s obvious that the Family Bowman feels the same way.

While the $3.5M cap hit really puts the Hawks in a bad spot for 2010-11, having Hammer locked up for 4 years is definitely a good thing. His game continues to progress leaps and bounds. Considering the fact that he’s only played around 100 games in the NHL and is a top 4 defenceman on the Stanley Cup champs says a lot about the kid’s potential. The Hawks were trying to get Hjalmarsson in at around $2.75M/$3M and I can’t blame him or his agent for trying to get a longer term deal for more money. At the end of the day this is a business. So while for year 1 and year 2 of this deal the $3.5M might be a slight overpayment, I’m of the opinion that by year 3 and 4 this deal will be a bargain.

Hjalmarsson is an important cog of the penalty kill and is sound defensively. The minutes he plays are also of the high-risk variety as he’s often paired with Brian Campbell who isn’t exactly known for his defensive prowess (although Soup did show improvement there this year). I still think Hammer has untapped offensive potential, and will grow in the physicality department as his frame fills out.

So bottom line, I’m happy Hammer is a Hawk for a long time. In a summer where every dollar counts however, this extra $750K or so that went to Niklas could force the Hawks into a tough decision.

Niemi heads to arbitration

The Hawks continue to negotiate with Antii Niemi on a contract that would keep the Finnish netminder in Chicago. Niemi, a restricted free agent, filed for arbitration and the hearing is set for July 29th.

The arbitrator will hear both sides and come to a decision on a one-year or two-year contract for Niemi. The Blackhawks at this time will have the option of accepting the arbitrator’s ruling or walking away, thus allowing Niemi to become an unrestricted free agent.

As things stand right now for the Hawks, they will continue to negotiate with Antii in the time leading up until the arbitration hearing and then will take their chances on the arbitrator ruling for a contract that the Hawks can stomach this season.

I’ve set that number in the $2.5-$2.75M range after some number crunching. In other words, if the arbitrator rules in that range or less, accept the deal and bring in Niemi for the year or two. If the arbitrator rules for an amount over that range, then you walk away if you’re the Hawks and Niemi becomes a free agent.

Before people start telling me I’m crazy, let’s take some perspective here. Based on the Hawks’ cap issues for 2010-11 it’s very likely that the Hawks will have a difficult time repeating anyways. You have to think about the long-term picture (namely 2011-12). If keeping Niemi leads to paying a price of losing a player like Patrick Sharp, then walk away from Niemi. The reasons for this are as follows:

a)This is not exactly a great market for UFA goaltenders. There really aren’t really a lot of starting goaltending gigs available out there, and after seeing goaltenders like Niemi and Michael Leighton in the Stanley Cup Finals, teams are starting to adopt the philosophy of spending less on goaltending. There are still notable names out there on the market such as Marty Turco and Jose Theodore who could fill in for the Hawks as a one-year stopgap. Whether Niemi gets the same amount of money the arbitrator set out from another team remains to be seen. But there are options out there for the Hawks who would come in at close to $2M or less for one year.

b)As mentioned, if you’re the Hawks, you have to think more towards 2011-12 in my mind. First, you get to spend the same as everyone else in the NHL instead of having this $4.2M in bonus penalty carrying over. Second, all the young prospects who will be filling out the roster this year are going to be one year older and one year wiser. The future is still bright for the Hawks despite their issues for 2010-11. You could always go with the stop gap for next year in net, and then in 2011-12 the following goaltenders are available in UFA: JS Gigure, Tomas Vokoun, Ilya Bryzgalov, Craig Anderson and Jimmy Howard.

I guess in a worse case scenario you can go with Hannu Toivenen and Corey Crawford in net for a combined $1.3M, keep $1M in cap space and then acquire a goaltender at the deadline. I wouldn’t recommend this however.

So to summarize, if the Hawks do not get a favorable ruling on the arbitrator they have to walk away from Niemi, allow him to become a UFA and then find a goaltender this year in UFA for cheaper (Niemi is still an option here as outlined above). I prefer this option as compared to keeping Niemi over Patrick Sharp.

Who knows, maybe the arbitrator’s ruling is a good one for the Hawks. It’ll be the first thing that’s gone right this summer for the Hawks since June 9th.

Prospect Camp

The Hawks held their annual prospect camp and from all accounts the kids were working hard and trying to impress the Blackhawks brass. There is a realistic possibility that 3-4 of the kids there this weekend will be on the Hawks roster next year due to the aforementioned cap problems.

From most accounts, a couple players that stood out were defencemen Shaun Lalonde and Nick Leddy, as well as Swedish center Marcus Kruger. Lalonde has a chance to make the squad next year while Leddy and Kruger are still most likely a year or two away.

For a better summary of prospect camp, this writeup at committedindians.com gives a rundown of what happened this weekend.


So, the summer drags on. As more smaller signings are made (Bickell, Skille, Hendry?), etc, it’ll be easier to project a lineup. The most important domino is Niemi now. We’ll have to see how it plays out.

The Final Cut is the Deepest

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The Sedins and Ryan Kesler won't miss you Andrew, but us Hawks fans sure will.

Two years ago pretty much to the day, the Blackhawks decided to make a splash in free agency signing Cristobal Huet and Brian Campbell to huge contracts. Knowledgeable Hawks fans realized that in two years, when the contracts for Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith were up that the Hawks were going to have to lose some pieces of their team.

Fast forward to the present and that’s exactly what has happened. The Blackhawks completed (for the most part) making moves to get under the 2010-11 salary cap with the trades of Kris Versteeg to Toronto and Andrew Ladd to Atlanta. Both players will be missed without question. Versteeg, while extremely frustrating at times, is gritty and a very solid NHL player capable of slotting in on a 2nd or 3rd line for a team. Ladd is the type of player that winning teams have. A player whose contributions are rarely noticed on a boxscore, but contributions that are always noticed by teammates and coaches. The guy is a winner plain and simple.

It’s easy to sit here and blame Campbell and Huet’s contracts as the reason the Hawks have lost Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd and Kris Versteeg in the last 2 weeks. It’s partially accurate too. Or we can blame the RFA fiasco last summer on forcing this upon the Hawks. This is also partially accurate. Some fault definitely lies with the Hawks for creating this mess they were in.

Before you completely lay the blame there however, remember that if Campbell doesn’t come back early from injury, the Hawks might have been out to Nashville in Round 1. Remember the fact that if certain players aren’t slightly overpaid on RFA contracts when they were signed (Bolland, Sharp, Versteeg, Buff, etc), the Hawks are not hoisting the Stanley Cup. The Hawks took some risks to try to win the Stanley Cup before the Cap Armegeddon hit, and they did it. As I've said many times before, I take the tradeoff of some cap problems down the road if it means we've hoisted the Cup any day of the week.

The salary cap is what it is. Every team has to play by the same rules and I can accept that. The invoking of the salary cap has allowed teams from all over the league to be competitive. This, coupled with certain on-ice rule changes and an influx of charismatic young stars has the NHL is the best position it’s been in for a very long time.

As I said at the top, we all knew this day was coming. Knowing that it’s coming doesn’t make it any easier to digest, but here we are. What’s funny is that Huet’s contract isn’t the main reason (because he’s going to Europe or the minors and will be off the books regardless) the Hawks had to dump Versteeg and Ladd in the last couple days. The knockout blow for the Hawks was the fact that roughly $4M in bonuses payable to Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane (for winning the Conn Smythe and finishing top 10 in points respectively) is deducted off next year’s cap for the Hawks, leaving them at $55.2M to work with when the rest of the league has $59.4M.

This is the only thing that irritates me about this situation. The Hawks are being punished for their players having success. I’m not going to get into an in depth salary cap and CBA discussion, but just think about that from a high level perspective there for a second. I understand how the bonus cushion works and if you use it in one year has to come off a future year’s cap. Fair enough. But the CBA should allow some sort of flexibility in how this penalty is applied. Maybe allowing teams to spread it out over two years (much like how buyouts work) is an idea to be explored. Because the Hawks players were successful, one of Buff or Versteeg and Ladd are not going to be on the Hawks roster next year. It’s a little frustrating to say the least.

Reality is though, that it is what it is (to steal a saying from my cousin) and the Hawks will have to move on. Who knows, maybe the NHL and NHLPA in the next round of CBA negotiations will look at what happened with the Hawks and how they had to dismantle their Stanley Cup team and figure out a way to minimize the penalty for being successful.

There’s no question that the Hawks will be a weaker team in 2010-11 than they were in 2009-10. Buff, Versteeg and Ladd were all contributors to the Hawks' success and will be missed. But I credit Stan Bowman for doing a pretty good job given a difficult situation. Bowman was able to accumulate a number of picks and solid prospects in return for these players, and in a manner of speaking sold high on each of his 3 assets.

The Hawks core is still one of the best in the league, if not the best. When your forwards consist of players like Toews, Kane, Sharp, Hossa, Bolland and your top 4 Dmen are Keith, Seabrook, Campbell and Hjalmarsson, you’re going to be alright. So it obviously isn’t all doom and gloom for Hawks fans. What the Hawks need is a couple of these kids to develop into solid contributors. They’re not going to be asked to be superstars for the Hawks. They are going to be asked to out there and do their job.

The Hawks do lose a bit of grit and toughness with the losses of Buff, Versteeg and Ladd, but this is where guys like Jake Dowell, Bryan Bickell and Kyle Beach will have an opportunity to contribute.

At the end of the day, there’s no sugar coating it. The Hawks will miss all three of those players next year and on behalf of Hawks fans everywhere we wish them nothing but the best. It’s important however not to lose sight of the fact that the Hawks will still be a good team and the future is still very bright. The next entry will be another stab at next year’s roster and the prospects that will be competing for jobs with the Hawks in the next year or two. I’m going to hold off a couple days on that to allow for additional chips to fall from the start of the unrestricted free agency period.

And now we wait...

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Can the Hawks find a way to keep Ladd?


In what was expected to be a pretty busy weekend for the Hawks, GM Stan Bowman was relatively quiet on the trade front, as much of the league was. There were not many deals done between GMs unless they involved draft pick swaps.

Which leads us to the draft. The Hawks made 5 selections in the first 2 rounds and the theme of the draft was taking big players with skill and who can skate. Chicago used their first selection on Kevin Hayes from Massachusetts high school at 24 overall. Other draft picks included Ludvig Rensfeldt (great name) from Sweden at pick 35, US-born defencemen Justin Holl and Stephen Johns at picks 54 and 60 respectively and goaltender Kent Simpson at pick 58. The Blackhawks also traded one of their second round picks for Jimmy Hayes (brother of first round pick Kevin) who was a 2009 2nd round selection of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

I’m not going to sit here and pretend like I’ve seen these kids play or know how they are going to project in 3-5 years. That’s what makes the NHL draft such a crapshoot. The Hawks went into the weekend with the goal of further supplementing their pipeline of prospects and did achieve this. Only time will tell how these kids pan out and a key from this point on is the proper development. We’ll have to re-evaluate the 2010 draft in a couple years.

In the very least, Bowman now has additional ammo to make deals at the 2011 or 2012 trade deadline if the Hawks need to pick up additional pieces at the deadline to make a Cup run. You can never have enough good assets in your system.

As I mentioned above, it was surprising that there wasn’t another trade involving the Hawks this weekend. While Stan Bowman has indicated the Hawks do not have to make any more trades for salary cap reasons, it is unlikely that this is the case. Kris Versteeg and Andrew Ladd’s names were those most mentioned over the weekend.

News came out yesterday that the Hawks did indeed qualify key restricted free agents Niklas Hjalmarsson, Antii Niemi, and the aforementioned Andrew Ladd. While this doesn’t mean the players are going to sign these qualifying offers, it does ensure that the Hawks would receive compensation should another team sign them to an offer sheet. It also doesn’t prevent the Hawks from continuing to negotiate with their RFAs in order to sign them before July 1st.

So we now wait. Free agency opens on July 1st and while this is not exactly a bumper crop of unrestricted free agents, July 1st is going to mark a very important day for general managers. There’s a good chance a lot of these GMs are not going to get their UFA targets, meaning they will have to go the trade route to improve their team. I fully expect Stan to be a busy man in the next 2 weeks.

We will also soon know the answers to the questions that are unanswered at this time, such as what exactly the Hawks 2010-11 salary cap is after bonuses, and what it’s going to take to sign Hjalmarsson, Niemi and Ladd. It should still be a very interesting couple of weeks upcoming for the Stanley Cup Champs.

Making Moves

First off, congratulations to Duncan Keith for winning the Norris trophy as the NHL’s best defenceman. It was a well-deserved award for DK, and caps off a remarkable year for him of winning the Stanley Cup, winning an Olympic gold medal and now the Norris trophy.

On to the bigger news regarding the Hawks, with no offence to Keith’s accomplishment of course.

Yesterday, the Chicago Blackhawks completed a blockbuster trade that sent one of their playoff heroes Dustin Byfuglien to the Atlanta Thrashers. Details of the 9 player/pick deal are as follows:

To Atlanta:
• Dustin Byfuglien
• Ben Eager
• Brent Sopel
• Akim Aliu

To Chicago:
• New Jersey’s 2010 1st rounder (pick 24)
• New Jersey’s 2010 2nd rounder (pick 54)
• Marty Reasoner
• Jeremy Morin
• Joey Crabb

In another move, the Blackhawks sent Colin Fraser to the Edmonton Oilers for a 2010 6th round pick.

Good job by Stan Bowman on these two trades. Obviously with the salary cap mess the Hawks are dealing with, bodies were going to have to go. I don’t like the situation as obviously, as a Stanley Cup Champion you’d love to keep your roster intact and defend your title. But the reality is that this was not going to be possible for the Hawks in 2010-11 and that moves were going to have to be made.

The Hawks were able to get something in return for Ben Eager and Brent Sopel, the latter whom many believed had negative trade value. Akim Aliu was a prospect who was behind too many others in the Chicago organization, and Atlanta GM Rick Dudley was Aliu’s biggest supporter during Dudley’s time in the Chicago organization. So it’s not surprising to see Dudley want Aliu. As for Fraser, the Hawks do not have the luxury of spending $800K-$1M on a 4th liner this season as every hundred thousand dollars saved will be huge.

The contributions of Eager, Sopel and Fraser to winning the Stanley Cup will not be forgotten by Hawks fans.

As for what the Hawks received, they got their asking price for Byfuglien, which was a 1st rounder and a good prospect in Jeremy Morin. Morin had a solid World Junior Championship for the USA this past year and will be given all the time he needs to develop. Marty Reasoner could be a cheap replacement for John Madden as he makes $1.15M this year. The Hawks could still turn around and trade him in future moves. Joey Crabb was just a contract sent to Chicago so Atlanta could get under the max of 50 contracts allowed, and will most likely be a UFA in a week or so.

Most importantly, the Hawks were able to shave approximately $4.2M off their payroll in this move and won’t have to worry about qualifying Ben Eager. This will allow them some flexibility to qualify their RFAs like Ladd, Hjalmarsson and Niemi.

The Hawks now hold 5 picks in the first 2 rounds of the 2010 Draft (picks 24, 30, 43, 54 and 60). Whether the Hawks will try to move up to grab a top prospect, or make all 5 picks remains to be seen. Either way, these picks will go a long way to help replenishing the farm with solid prospects.

Which brings us to Buff. It sucks to see him go, without question. But as I’ve set out in my previous blogs, a couple pieces from the secondary core are going to have to be moved this offseason. Bowman decided this was the best deal at this time.

Byfuglien’s contributions to the Stanley Cup will never be forgotten by Hawks fans. He was a monster in the playoffs and was a nightmare for Vancouver and San Jose fans. One downside of this deal is that Roberto Luongo won't be having nightmares anymore. Buff will definitely be missed. But this decision came down to Buff or Patrick Sharp (via my number crunching), and in my opinion the Hawks chose correctly. Sharp is a better player and fills a need at center the Hawks have. And it was an opportunity to sell high on Byfuglien. There is a chance he continues to evolve into an elite power forward. Or he reverts back to the inconsistent player he was for much of the season. That’s now Atlanta’s issue.

Where do the Hawks go from here? Really, it’s tough to say for certain as we currently do not know the exact Hawks cap number. If I had to offer predictions, I’m still pretty sure that Versteeg is next, but it’s tough to say now. Bowman has bought himself a little bit of time now after this deal. Perhaps one of Ladd or Versteeg can still be back, it’s tough to say.

Right now, the unknowns are:

• The amount of bonuses that will be deducted from the Hawks 2010-11 salary cap number
• How much Ladd, Hjalmarsson and Niemi are willing to sign for

Once that’s known, it’ll be easier to make projections on what the lineup will look like.

But for now, I’ll wrap this up by saying thank you to “Big Buff”, “Catfish”,”Benny” and “Fraz” for your heart and contributions to the Blackhawks and best of luck in your new homes.